...because the national campaigns haven't even really started yet. But there's an interesting little fact tucked into this Politico story about a poll showing Romney and Obama running neck and neck:
But the president enjoys more positive support than the former Massachusetts governor, with 74 percent of his supporters saying they would be voting “for” Obama and 21 percent saying they would be voting “against Romney.” Among the GOP hopeful’s supporters, just 33 percent said they were “for Romney,” while a whopping 58 percent said their vote was more “against Obama.”
Unless you have some strange circumstances—a third party candidate, say, or severely bad news for the White House—it's really hard to win an election when your candidate's most striking feature is he is not the incumbent. Romney should be up in the polls for likability right now. He's got the press in his pocket, and he's facing a handful of continually shrinking, and very unlikable, opponents. If he's not dominating in likability now, he's only got one more chance to make up those numbers with his base, and that's the Republican Convention, when the party presents their candidate's biography and mission statement. It's hard to think how they'll manage to package Romney—wealthy son of a failed presidential candidate—into something eminently likable.