If you make it this far, you deserve and receive a break. So, after dispatching the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference Semifinal on the first Sunday of November at BC Place, the Portland Timbers broke for a week off before resuming training and the chase for MLS Cup 2015.
On Sunday (4:30 PM, TV on Fox Sports 1), Portland plays its last home game of the season at Providence Park against FC Dallas in the first leg of the Western Conference Final. Dallas—young, talented, and relentless—is the stiffest challenge the Timbers have faced yet on this year's playoff trail.
With key men Diego Valeri and Rodney Wallace suspended, Caleb Porter will again have to plug in players and perhaps change formations—hoping that the momentum that has built and built and built through the last month can survive a long layoff, missing pieces, and Dallas' speed. Portland has every reason to be confident. According to Porter, this is the best the club—now two results away from MLS Cup—has ever played under his watch.
The History
Portland and Dallas met just twice in the regular season, but both dissimilar contests provided plenty to chew on. The Timbers got their first win of the season against Oscar Pareja's team at Providence Park in March by a 3-1 scoreline. Nat Borchers got Portland's opener and Diego Chara killed the game off with a late goal, but it was Tissue Gate—an altercation between the two managers at the final whistle—that grabbed all the headlines.
Dallas got their revenge by smacking the Timbers 4-1 in July, jumping all over Portland early and handing them their second worst loss of the campaign. The two games were a contrast in styles—Dallas was able to run in Frisco, while the Timbers managed their home game very well.
This is Portland's second appearance in the Western Conference Final. In 2013, this was where the joyride ended. The Timbers got annihilated 4-2 on a Sunday night at Real Salt Lake, and, with a mountain to climb, lost the second leg 1-0 at Jeld-Wen Field. Porter has talked plenty this week about learning from that experience and capitalizing on that growth in this series.
This will be the just the second MLS playoff game of Portland's that Lake Oswego native John Strong has called. The first was the team's postseason bow, a 2-1 win in Seattle that stands as the MLS Timbers' only victory ever at CenturyLink Field. Both Dallas' win on penalties over Seattle and Portland's win on penalties against Sporting KC on the way to this matchup are among the greatest games in league history.
The Tactics
In a perfect world, the Timbers would have named an unchanged team for this game. But thanks to MLS' idiotic postseason yellow card rules, in which two bookings equals a suspension, both Valeri and Wallace will miss the first leg.
Both, unquestionably, have been crucial so far in this playoff run. Valeri has finally found his groove. Somewhat overshadowed for once by Darlington Nagbe's recent exploits, the Argentinian playmaker has pitched in two assists in the three playoff games—and in both matches against Vancouver, he was Portland's most consistently dangerous player.
Meanwhile, having finally rediscovered the confidence that had him in remarkably high stead in 2013 and '14, Wallace is again experiencing something of a career renaissance. Having originally won back his place in Columbus in late September for his defensive capabilities and work-rate, the Costa Rican has a goal and an assist to his name thus far in the playoffs.
Both will be big misses. But each absence is an opportunity for another individual, and, in this case, maybe a Timbers swan-song for Will Johnson. The captain has played no role since getting minor surgery almost two months ago, and rumors have swirled this week that he's on his way out in the offseason.
But with Valeri out, and no questions about fitness after two successful starts for Canada, the obvious move is to play Johnson with Diego Chara and Nagbe in a midfield triumvirate. Coming in on the wing for Wallace will be the ne'er-do-well DP Lucas Melano, who will be implored to keep the game simple and work hard defensively. Meanwhile, Dairon Asprilla's late-season resurgence is more and more important by the day.
Dallas will try to isolate Alvas Powell on the wing against either Fabian Castillo—reportedly the target of a substantial bid from Club America—or Michael Barrios, while it will be crucial for Portland, led by Chara, to limit the touches and influence of Dallas' midfield magician Mauro Diaz. Pareja has a decision to make at forward, where David Texeira has been ineffective and Tesho Akindele made a huge impact off the bench in the last game.
The question will be how much each team is willing to risk in the first leg. Porter has preached balance and patience this year, and that mindset worked to perfection in the Vancouver series.
It's not Dallas' style to sit back, but one has to think they learned from their last tie against Seattle—when a gung-ho approach on the road in the first leg almost cost them their season. Both managers would, most likely, take a 0-0 draw. An early goal will open the game up immeasurably.
The Lineups
FC Dallas
44 - Gonzalez
27 - Watson
17 - Loyd
24 - Hedges (C)
12 - Hollingshead
23 - Acosta
8 - Ulloa
21 - Barrios
10 - Diaz
11 - Castillo
9 - Texeira
Portland Timbers
12 - Kwarasey
2 - Powell
24 - Ridgewell
7 - Borchers
19 - Villafaña
21 - Chara
4 - W. Johnson (C)
6 - Nagbe
11 - Asprilla
26 - Melano
9 - Adi
The Pick
I don't see even this great Timbers defense keeping Dallas off the board entirely, but this series is going to be close all the way. My prediction is a 1-1 draw that leaves the tie hanging in the balance for next Sunday in the heart of Texas.
