Kroger is the official grown up in the room at the moment and the process has ceded a decision to him to make. That Adams has been weakened by his personal mistakes or political choices is entirely overshadowed by what the AG can say.

What's Kroger's timeline for a decision?

If Kroger chooses to indict Adams, and Adams resigns, Adams is entirely on the hook for his defense and public relations.

If Kroger chooses to indict Adams and Adams does not resign, the city may be on the hook for his defense as an employee and his staff, paid by the city, can help manage public relations.

If Kroger does not indict Adams, the recall campaign could gain a foothold, but you're right in pointing out funds and a viable spokesperson have not materialized. Without those two firmly onboard within a week of Kroger announcement to not indict, a recall is unlikely.

The recall effort is a joke, but Thee O has tipped its hand and the hand of The Powers That Be. Adams will soon be thrown under the bus. If he doesn't resign, he will be dealt with. Wurster's effort is just a sideshow.

My undestanding of the law is that charges must be filed before Breedlove's 22nd birthday. Which is June 22nd, 2009.

So anything that happens from Kroger has to happen before then.

Just sort of like what I've been thinking all along. Unless Kroger indicts then nothing is going to happen.

The problem with the recall campaign is pretty obvious. I completely think Wurster himself doesn't give a crap about whether or not Sam is gay. That's not the issue with him. The problem is that without an indictment the recall folks need the people that hate "the gay". But of course recruiting them into the fold would be a death spike too because people would just dismiss them as people that hate Sam cause he's gay.

Its a really weird dynamic. The anti-CRC/Sam lied folks hate the anti-gay people but they both want to recall Adams for completely different reasons. The anti-CRC/Sam lied folks can't merge with the christianist crowd because they know they'd be dismissed immediately...but they don't have enough people without them.

Interesting to see how this pans out.

I'm guessing that they can get the signatures if they're smart and diligent about it. They have to seek out the right targets, i.e. business people, closet conservatives.

Without some actual polling done, we won't know who strong support is for either side. I agree that a recall will be a long shot, but I don't hear anyone in my circles saying glowing things about Adams, even if they're not calling for his head. (Despite my cantankerous nature, my circles are still overwhelmingly liberal democratic.)

After they have the signatures, I think the campaign will have a hard time. No one prominent or with money is going to step forward to associate themselves with the recall, while lots of powerful people will just fall in behind Sam to reap the dividends when he survives the recall attempt.

The sad thing is that Adams will be even more beholden to developers and other powerful interests after the recall attempt. (Anyone wonder why were still talking about a Convention Center Hotel?)

"What's Kroger's timeline for a decision?"

Your guess is as good as anyone's. We've had calls in to Kroger's office from day one, and the official line seems to be that they'll only give an indication of time line within moments of making a verdict announcement. Specifically, one of Kroger's aides even told the Mercury that telling papers to "expect a decision Tuesday" or whatever was off the table because everyone would be clamoring around.

Certainly at this point, almost everyone is asking "what's taking so long?"

From this alone we think the investigation must have widened in scope to include more than just whether Adams' kissing Breedlove in a restroom counts as "intimate contact," which seemed to us to be the most likely cause for prosecution in January, looking at the law.

http://blogtown.portlandmercury.com/Blogto…

On the election law front, I did think Kroger's statement in early March that "nothing is more important than fair elections where people obey the rules" was pretty resounding:

http://blogtown.portlandmercury.com/Blogto…

Still, this is all speculation. Kroger's office has done a marvelous job of getting everyone to keep quiet. There have been no leaks, whatsoever. Nothing. And those who have been interviewed by the AG so far have had little insight into what kind of prosecution, if any, may be being aimed for.

"If Kroger chooses to indict Adams, and Adams resigns, Adams is entirely on the hook for his defense and public relations.

If Kroger chooses to indict Adams and Adams does not resign, the city may be on the hook for his defense as an employee and his staff, paid by the city, can help manage public relations."

I doubt very much whether Adams would be comfortable using the city's dime to mount a defense. It would look disastrous and you're right, bolster a recall effort. I think at this point, if the AG presses charges, Adams would probably think seriously about stepping down while he fights the charges.

So it's all in the hands of the AG. If he indicts, Adams is toast. If he doesn't, Adams isn't. That's my two cents of opinion on the whole thing.

Unsubstantiated rumor of the morning: Adams' chief of staff Tom Miller is rumored to have held a staff meeting Friday - not to calm everybody down about the Oregonian article but to ask if he should respond because the "mayor's office isn't distracted at all." Apparently Miller said that "they" (who knows - media or AG's office?) were investigating the mayor's staff now, too.

I have no idea whether or not that's true...it's probably nonsense. But it's a rumor going around so I thought I'd share it with the appropriate caveats.

Blackedout: 'The problem is that without an indictment the recall folks need the people that hate "the gay"'

I know that I'm an example of someone who doesn't care if the Mayor is gay, but think he should be recalled. So I know that mindset is possible, even if it's hard for his supporters to fathom. The question is how many people like me are out there?

But I agree that an indictment (or very scathing report just short of an indictment) would probably be required to make the difference.

Matt: "I doubt very much whether Adams would be comfortable using the city's dime to mount a defense."

Ha ha ha ha ha! You slay me. He'd probably create a new Urban Renewal District around his house.

Please don't ruin Sunday Parkways with a bunch of signature gatherings.

I get the gut feeling that Sam Adams plays Portland like Ex-Pres Bush played Texas. It's all this crap talk with no real substance. It's like a teenage click from a coffee house runs own town.

Jasun, are you going to limit the amount that any one person or organization will be allowed to donate to your "campaign"?

Jason: The Sunday Parkways? Dude that's so low class.

Stay out of the Sunday Parkways and don't put a bunch of signature gatherers out there on a divisive issue.

Of the many problems with that little viddie the worst is:
No mention of why Sammy can't be trusted (in the minds of recallers).
I hope there will be more vids with some actual content explaining the recalls position and the specific issues it has with Sam's lil cover up of said tryst with Boylove and how it is supposed to tie in with his political decisions - re: "trust"

"there is no money?"
ARE YOU KIDDING?
As soon as there's a place to give money to, people will give money. I'm feeling around for my checkbook now.
The video is a little naive, but GOD, it's so comforting to have something with an innocent tone, just not to have to be reminded about how sad and screwed up the whole mess really, actually, IS....
and 31K signatures is so easy...why do people lack imagination?
Just imagine a couple of smart-assed teenagers showing up to everyone's door, hey, how'd you like to recall the mayor?
HOW could people say no?
It'll be portland's 2009 teen job-corps program, and I know someone who would pay for it.

@Abusive

The problem with what you're saying is that if Kroger doesn't say Sam did anything sexual with Breedlove before he was 18 it won't matter. My sex life, your sex life and Sam's sex life are nobody's business but our own. If a reporter asks me who I'm screwing around with you bet your ass I'm going to lie to them. It's no business of anyone's.

Blacked out,
why are you living in such a bubble? let me think, would you have voted for Nader if you'd lived in Florida in 2000?
Go take your "sex is noone's business," think about what happened to Derrick Foxworthy over sex with a PEER, think a minute about Anita Hill, roll it all together, and SMOKE IT.
Maybe then you'd pause a minute and think about why people don't like to vote for mayors who bang high-schoolers.

I get the gut feeling that Sam Adams plays Portland like Ex-Pres Bush played Texas. It's all this crap talk with no real substance. It's like a teenage click from a coffee house runs own town.

The money to collect 32,000 signatures will come easily from the various cranks and kooks. It's a very low bar to reach - a prospective lawsuit there. What will be complex and expensive is the siege once the petition is filed.

@genetorio

Yeah...sex is nobody's business but your own. If Breedlove was 18 he was an adult and regardless of what you think it was totally legal for any 70, 60, 50, 40 or 30 year old slide their tongue all over his naked body and you don't get to interject your feelings on the matter.

President Clinton got a BJ from a young intern while married. It wasn't worth the impeachment nor was it illegal.

Derrick Foxworth was accused of threatening Angela Oswalt and Clarence Thomas was accused of sexually harassing Anita Hill. Those two things are crimes and therefore "our business." Also they are very different than two adults deciding to have sex with each other.

If Kroger comes out and says no crimes were committed then great. I'll move on, but by no means am I living in a dream world because I don't give a rip who our mayor humps.

Let's see...
100K dead in Irak
Bill and Monica
Gosh, you're right, blacked out, Everyone is free to do whatever, of course, as long as it's legal. Right.

I can't watch the video because YouTube is blocked at my work, where I work, to earn money, to contribute to well-organized campaigns that aren't retarded. I don't have time to go get all activist myself, with an occasional exception when there's a compelling, non-retarded cause.

Count me among the "doesn't care about a big gay scandal, but then later got all pissed, about which thing I don't even remember but most likely either CRC, sit-lie, the soccer bullshit, the coliseum, the big neon rose, or all of the above, and went to recallsamadams.com, only to find it hopelessly retarded and slanted toward the retarded and non-compelling issue of Beau Breedlove, LIKE I CARE" demographic.

Jasun, I wouldn't be surprised if you were getting paid by the developers behind the scenes for this little circus you're putting on. Hope you enjoy the Rose Quarter strip mall.

That video is pretty crappy. I've seen better work from first year art students.

Yeah, I don't care about the breedlove crap, but have been rather disappointed in Sam these past 3 months. But come on, it's only been 100 days. If I decide to get behind a recall effort, it will be at least after a year of Sam making bad decisions, or a true scandal.

I'm a personal friend of Jasun's and am inspired and supportive of his efforts trying to make our community a better one – it just so happens that I think he's wrong on this issue.

@genetorio

Funny you mention 100k dead in "Irak". Nice spelling by the way.

See if you make the recall about sex you're going to lose. You're dealing with a population that mostly doesn't give a rip. That's why I laugh. Most people around these parts don't give a rip what Monica blew. Sure Bill lied to a grand jury about it. Was it illegal for him to lie to a grand jury? Yep. Did most people around here think it was stupid and a waste of time? Yep.

Sam lied to a reporter from a rinky dink alt-newspaper. Hardly a grand jury.

You're missing the point. It's a sex scandal in a town that likes to sleep around. You want to focus it on the sex...go ahead. Please do. You'll get crucified for it.

The only way the recall works is if there are more people like Wurster that don't care about the sex but care about the lie. The problem with the recall is that the people like you that care about the sex are going to take over the debate. The recall effort will center around that argument because that's what the press will center on. At that point it's a new ball game. Now you're talking a major populace who in the past has shown they don't care about who their leaders screw because it doesn't impact how they lead. The anti-CRC folks will never pair with the anti-sex crowd, the anti-stadium crowd will never pair with the anti-sex crowd...and on and on. The anti-sex crowd will be the loudest of all though because that's what the media will latch on to because its scandalous and they need to sell papers and boost readership. Most of Portland cancelled their subscriptions so if they get any info on the internet. Wurster has said this isn't an internet run campaign. Judging by their website he's right. Even if I wanted to be a part of the recall campaign I wouldn't do anything because of that website. It doesn't direct you to anything. Just a bunch of babble about how Sam suck etc... I read the same B.S. on Fox News about Barack Obama. Fox News doesn't inspire me...

It's why I mock the recall effort. I admire Wurster's attempts at trying to remain above it all. He's not going to be the spokeman in the end though. It's likely going to be some bigoted gay hater from Vancouver regardless of what Wurster does. The media will latch onto that. That's a toxic formula in Portland. It won't fly and that's a fact. Rondine and her trailer park, Victoria Taft and Lars Larson are nothing but toxic to the recall campaign in Portland. Sorry dude...that's a fact!

I don't see how the recall effort won't turn into making it about sex. If it doesn't it has a slim chance of succeeding. If it does...recall dead. Without an indictment from Kroger this will go nowhere. I'll still put money on it.

I really do appreciate a good grassroots campaign. But, hopefully, most Portlanders will realize, (and I have faith that they will) that an agenda, even though it comes directly from a common base of citizens, can be misguided.

If Jasun has the best interests of Portland at hand, then I sympathize with him, personally. However, I cannot agree with what he's doing. As little of an impact as it has, it's a bad one, and he's just empowering those who want to abuse our city for financial gain.

They say the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Well, I'll see you in Hell, Wurster.

Irak is an accepted alternative to Iraq.

Blacked out, you confuse me. First, you say these blogs aren't representative of general opinion. Then you claim noone gives a rip about sex: do you base it on your interactions in blogland? (And while you're right that Portland is pretty mellow about sex,, people still DO care about someone lying about sex with someone very young in order to get elected. Yes, they fucking care about that!).

So, in essence, we agree, although you don't sound like the type that likes to admit that.

I'd wager you are not the type who asks strangers on the bus, in the register line, and on the phone, what they think about Adams. I do this. Yesterday I was getting an exam in the Dr's office, and I'd already got my Dr's pledge to sign the recall petition, and the MA's and the receptionist's. And all their friends and family.

Everyone on my block, including the gay couple next door, are signing. There is not a single person in my workplace or sizable social sphere, who is not chomping at the bit to sign the petition.

And you know why? Because people are SICK of politicians and their bullshit.

And you still haven't answered my real point- that Monicagate changed the course of history and led to the deaths of thousands of innocents, and has made most of us very averse to politicians who can't keep it together when presented with quivering young flesh. And guess what, after yellow cake, LYING IS NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE.

We can't have Obama for mayor, but we ARE going to get closer to that ideal through this process.

@blackedOut

You and Drunky Crow can sit at the end of the bar and say no one gives a shit all you want. If you got out and talked to the average Portlander you would find out that just about everyone has a bone to pick with Sam Adams.
By:
-Breaking the law (yes he did)
-Lying about breaking the law
-Destroying others to protect the lie so he can win an election
-Hiring reporters to get them off the lie
-Lying to all of the editorial boards in Portland
-Then throwing three major projects at us with a hurry up time-line.
This adds up to pissing off just about everyone; that is except you.

Every registered voter I know in Portland, including the gay coffee shop owner around the corner, are going to sign the recall petition.
You sir are indeed blackedOut.