It's the final meeting of the year between the Portland Timbers and the Seattle Sounders, and it could hardly be set up more dramatically.
The Timbers, having gone 15 games unbeaten between mid-April and early August, have now lost three straight. The Sounders, having hardly won any games for the season's first four months, are now winners of six in a row. Both clubs need the points. For both, it's the biggest game of the season so far (6:30 p.m., TV on Fox Sports 1).
The Opponent
Dreadfully slow starts followed by furiously strong finishes. That's been the Seattle Sounders for the last two years, and this season appears to be going the same way.
Consider: On July 20, Seattle was marooned near the bottom of the Western Conference. They'd won just four of their first eighteen matches –- just two of eight at home — and were scoring less than a goal per game. They were, easily, one of the league's worst teams.
Since then, they've done nothing but win: a franchise record six in a row and counting, on a stretch during which they've outscored their opponents 15-3. The high point to date came last Saturday, in a 5-0 route of the LA Galaxy at CenturyLink Field that equalled the club's largest ever margin of victory in an MLS match.
The Sounders now sit in eighth place, just two points below the playoff red line. With a win on Sunday, they would jump the Timbers and move into fifth.
What's changed? Signing star Peruvian striker Raul Ruidiaz didn't hurt. But mostly, the Sounders have gotten healthy — something that they weren't at any point during the first half — and recovered their swagger. Nicolas Lodeiro is playing his best soccer since 2016, and several others are following his lead.
Bigger picture, this is a group of players that has won a lot of games and won a lot of games late in the year. They're not, at this point, the West's most dangerous or most talented team. But they're going to be an awfully tough out down the stretch.
The Tactics
Though they featured an injury-induced 5-4-1 when they visited Portland in May, the Sounders are a dyed-in-the-wool 4-2-3-1 team that has made just one lineup alternation over the last four weeks. They know who they are.
Who they are starts with defense. Seattle conceded the fewest goals in the league, and its back six — led by the ageless Chad Marshall — has been in top form since mid-July. They keep games tight in the middle of the field, with both wingers pinching inside and Lodeiro covering a ton of ground from his playmaking role, and try to seal off the final third.
In the May game, that general setup gave the Timbers all kinds of trouble. In the second meeting, in June, they focused their attack out wide and fared better. Width being paramount against the Sounders, the 5-3-2, bad as it looked last week, seems like Giovani Savarese's best bet.
A large part of the battle on Sunday, though, will have to do with the pace of the game. The Sounders play as slowly as any team in the league, while the Timbers have been best at home this summer when they attack with urgency. Seattle will have control possession, but whichever dictates the tempo will be in good shape.
The other area to watch is set pieces. There were three set piece goals in the game in Seattle, with Larrys Mabiala scoring twice for the Timbers and Chad Marshall once for the Sounders. That matchup in particular is going to be a titanic fight, but dead ball situations, in what will be a physical game, could again be decisive.
If the Timbers are ahead in the second half, we'll likely see Brian Schmetzer bring on Will Bruin and shift to a much more direct 4-4-2.
Both teams, I think it's safe to say, are eager to play this game. The Timbers badly want to bounce back in a big way after losing three straight, while the veteran-laden Sounders are aiming to avoid the ignominy of becoming the first team in the MLS era of this rivalry to be swept in the season series.
The Lineup
1 - Attinella
16 - Valentin
18 - Cascante
13 - Olum
33 - Mabiala
2 - Powell
21 - Chara
11 - Polo
10 - Blanco
8 - Valeri (C)
99 - Armenteros
— Neither Jorge Villafaña nor Lucas Melano is ready to play quite yet. Villafaña is dealing with a shoulder problem, while Melano, who started and went 45 minutes for T2 in the smoke on Wednesday night, is still building up to full fitness.
— Liam Ridgewell returned to training this week, but while the Timbers' defense could certainly use him, he's not likely going to be thrown into a game of this magnitude after not playing for three months.
— Andy Polo was left out of the 18 in Kansas City last weekend for unclear reasons. That might be a non-story, or it could be a sign that he's fallen out of favor.
— Polo, in any case, would be the more progressive choice in that final midfield spot. If Savarese fears being outnumbered in midfield, David Guzmán — who hardly impressed against SKC — will get the call.
The Memory
This play, which decided the game at Providence Park in May, was the beginning of the rise of Samuel Armenteros in Portland.
The Pick
The Timbers will be up for this game, but they're running into a team that is as well positioned as any to stymie them. It'll finish 1-1.
