In an updated forecast released by the City Budget Office this afternoon, economist Josh Harwood reports that Portland should expect roughly $25.6 million for next year's budget more than it spent in 2015-2016 than would be required to maintain ongoing programs. That's around $5 million more than Harwood had said to expect back in February. The rejiggering comes from a mix of savings (like lower than anticipated health care costs) and new revenues (the biggie was an increase in the taxes Portland's raking in from lodging).
About $9.2 million of the general fund's surplus money is ongoing, meaning officials can plan on it replenishing each year. Roughly $16.4 million in one-time cash (half of which must be spent on maintenance projects).
And the surplus figures would be well higher—"closer to $36.8 million," Harwood notes—except Portland City Council has already pledged some $11.2 million toward costs associated with the city's housing emergency.
Remember last year, when we had nearly $50 million in extra revenue to play with? This forecast means we've now found $36.8 million on top of that. Budget-wise, things are humming in the Rose City, though anticipated rising costs for things like pension payments and employee benefits in coming years will temper the gains.
Always cautious, the budget office also notes that nothing gold can stay.
"As we approach the beginning of year 8 of the current economic expansion, the local economy is reaching exceptional heights," Harwood writes. "So much so, that murmurs of a speculative bubble are getting louder, particularly as it relates to the local housing market."
The forecast isn't bad news, obviously, but don't count on it eliminating the need for cuts in Hales' upcoming budget, which is expected to put a huge focus on housing (similar to how last year's was focused on transportation) and which must wrangle with staffing issues in the Portland Police Bureau and Portland Fire and Rescue, along with grappling with arbitrator-mandated better pay for some parks workers.
Give Harwood's full forecast a look for yourself.
