For the second time in less than a week, a public poll has cast the Portland mayor’s race as a statistical tie—while also confirming strong, late momentum for East Portland State Representative Jefferson Smith, who has closed a significant gap in recent months over his two main rivals, businesswoman Eileen Brady and former city commissioner Charlie Hales.
And it likely won’t be the only major poll unveiled tonight. The Oregonian is expected to release its own public survey, sources say.
KATU’s phone poll of 563 likely (and actual!) voters, conducted by Survey USA on May 4-7, finds the three major candidates just three percentage points apart. Brady is ahead, but barely, followed by Smith and then Hales. That spread is smaller than the margin of error for the poll—4.2 percent—which still means anything can happen. In a poll released last week by OPB and KPTV, based on calls made before ballots began dropping, Hales led both Brady and Smith, but the spread was still just five points. (The reshuffling could be statistical noise, or it could reflect fallout over Hales—whom we endorsed—having been caught in a fib over his efforts to help Portland Public Schools back when he was on council.)
But perhaps the most interesting finding in the KATU poll? Among voters who have sent in ballots early (only 35,700 ballots have been counted so far), Brady, at 36 percent, led Smith by seven points and Hales by 10. The top two finishers after ballots are submitted on May 15, of course, get to keep playing until the November runoff.
Meanwhile, the KATU poll also shows a dead heat in the race between incumbent City Commissioner Amanda Fritz and State Representative Mary Nolan. Nolan leads Fritz 34 percent to 31 percent—but the poll also shows 15 percent of respondents saying they’d vote for one of the other candidates in the race, including Bruce Altizer, David Gwyther, and Teressa Raiford. If that holds up, that could send the race into a runoff, too.
The reshuffling could be that people want the most progressive and honest person, and Smith is it. A breath of fresh air. I agree with many of the commenters in your original endorsement article. I too was shocked that you would go with Hales and not Jefferson. It was heartening to see all the comments that felt the same way and will not blindly vote for what the Mercury says. That said, I do always weigh the Mercury recommendations, and thank you for your reporting. But in my opinion, you blew it this time with the Hales backing, but it seems like perhaps it is not having any effect, or much of one.
As for that editorial board meeting, I’d like to know…was there a minority report? Can you remember it for me wholesale, Denis?
For the record: when candidates fall within the margin of error in a poll, that means no one is necessarily ahead or behind.
The obvious takeaway is that the Mercury endorsement sent the Hales campaign into a tailspin.
And the reshuffling could of course be Smith coming on strong. He’s a strong campaigner, he’s got a true grassroots operation, he’s got the most donations (but not the richest donors) of any candidate, and he’s having to play catch-up from having to take a month to go help govern the state. (A candidate for a government office working in government, what a concept.)
The numbers regarding early voters are interesting, but I think procrastinators will swing for Jefferson Smith. He’s like their patron saint.
I find the Oregonian/KGW poll, conducted in-person, much more compelling. But maybe that’s just me…
@6…it’s not just you. The Mercury endorsement article was monkey poo.
Purely anecdotal, but I’ve seen quite a few Jefferson Smith TV commercials over the last few weeks, a few from Hales, and not a single one from Brady. Either Brady isn’t running spots on the shows I watch, or she really blew through that million bucks.
Chuck, you’re not watching “our” shows (i work part-time for the Brady campaign & speak only for myself). trust me, we’re on tv.
What the fuck does “our” shows mean? Is that an upper class joke? For a campaign all about jobs, you guys sure despise poor people and the unemployed.
I would assume “our shows” refers to the shows they advertising on. Jesus man, everything isn’t a slight engeneered by the power elites, or whoever people are blaming things on these days.
The one thing all these recent polls agree on = Brady is done. The run off will be Hales and Smith.
#5: What possible basis could you have for claiming that Smith is “a strong campaigner”? Name once.
Brady’s got ads, the campaign is just too embarassed to run them: http://youtu.be/g5MNKHbV25E
@9 Posted by tabarnhart on May 8, 2012 at 10:25 AM
Yet more shilling and astroturfing by the Brady campaign.
Still hoping for a cushy city hall job?