Credit: Kenneth Huey
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Kenneth Huey

If you haven’t heard, we’ve got our first snapshot of how Portland voters might be feeling in advance of the May 17 primary, and it suggests Ted Wheeler’s leading by a lot in the race for mayor.

Wheeler’s top competitor? He’s suggesting there’s nothing to it.

The SurveyUSA poll of 576 likely voters, commissioned by KATU, suggests that state Treasurer Wheeler’s got 38 percent of support, while Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey has 8 percent of the vote. None of the remaining 13 candidates corralled even 5 percent, and 31 percent of those polled are undecided.

SurveyUSA’s pollsters are calling Wheeler an “overwhelming favorite,” but still note there are questions about whether he can attract more than 50 percent of the vote outright, which would eliminate a runoff election in November.

Bailey’s camp, meanwhile, is telling supporters to disregard the poll—the first we’ve seen this election season that didn’t come from a campaign.

“This weekend, you’re probably going to hear about a poll in the mayor’s race from KATU and SurveyUSA,” the Bailey campaign writes in an email to supporters. “Here’s what you need to know: The poll, which suggests that Jules is losing, is badly flawed and can’t be trusted.”

The missive goes on to suggest other findings in the poll are wrong—like how many Portlanders have a landline phone, and how many are Democrats. And it rightly points out that the poll appears to have asked voters about a presidential candidate named “Ted Kasich” when it could only have meant Republican candidate John Kasich.

Bailey’s people further note that, in 2012, mayoral candidate Eileen Brady appeared to have an edge at around this point in the race, but didn’t make the November runoff.

“But the biggest flaw in the poll is that in the mayor’s race, SurveyUSA read off the names of all FIFTEEN candidates in alphabetical order — putting Bailey second, and Wheeler last.”

It’s possible being at the head of the list isn’t such a bad thing, though: Candidates like David “The Ack” Ackerman and Patty Burkett, who’ve been barely visible this campaign season, corralled 4 percent of support apiece, while far more visible candidates Sarah Iannarone and David Schor came out of the poll with 2 percent and 1 percent support, respectively.

The timing of the poll’s release held some significance during a candidate forum sponsored by AARP Oregon in Northeast Portland this morning. The organization only invited Wheeler and Bailey to the event, saying it would allow candidates to speak who had at least 10 percent support. That was based on polling from last year, however. The new numbers caused Iannarone, a business owner and Portland State University employee, to ask the AARP if it’d pull Bailey’s invitation. Then she tried to get into the event. It didn’t go great.

I'm a news reporter for the Mercury. I've spent a lot of the last decade in journalism — covering tragedy and chicanery in the hills of southwest Missouri, politics in Washington, D.C., and other matters...

4 replies on “A New Poll Suggests Ted Wheeler’s Winning. Jules Bailey’s Campaign Doesn’t Buy It”

  3. As a strong supporter of Jules I can say that I know that everyone wants to waste 4 billion dollars on a freeway expansion that only benefits Washington commuters and will lead to increased congestion on the i205 along with many surface streets along both the I5 and I205 in oregon. People love the CRC, as much as they love pollution, which is why Jules was it’s second biggest cheerleader right behind Tina Kotek.

  4. Ted Kasich is REAL, man! He’s awesome! he’s all for…stuff…and…things…and like that.

    He’s waaay better than Skip Trump, or Jeff Cruz, or even Jeb Landing Strip.

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