PORTLANDERS ARE ABOUT to get a little closer. In a recent
report, regional land-use agency Metro predicted that over the next 40
years, between 1.1 and 1.69 million new people will move into Portland
and its suburbs.
In September, Metro did something it hadn’t done in 30 years: Rather
than allow the city to sprawl outward, the agency recommended that
Portland’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) should stay where it is, forcing
the city to build denser to accommodate new residents.
The report includes some alarming predictions. In Metro’s low-ball
estimate, the region will have 1.1 million newcomers by 2050 and only
497,200 new jobs—that’s twice as many new residents as employment
possibilities. A more optimistic scenario shows 1.47 new people for
every new job. Those new people will all need places to live and Metro
predicts Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas Counties will build
between 405,400 and 441,000 new apartments, condos, and houses over the
next 40 years.
There was not a seat left in the Metro Council chambers last
Thursday, October 15, as over 70 people signed up to give their two
cents on the regional growth plan. The Metro council will make a final
decision on the UGB in December.
“We need to avoid the damage of mammoth so-called ‘infill projects’
that are threatening to overwhelm our neighborhoods,” said Cathy
Galbraith, who found new developments in historic neighborhoods to be
the biggest concern of Portlanders she surveyed last year with a
historic preservation group. “We need to get a handle on design of new
buildings so we don’t get things that look like the Star Wars
mothership has landed in your neighborhood.”
Portland and Multnomah County promote dense growth with tax
subsidies to high-density, transit-oriented developments. Last year the
city gave $1.37 million in tax breaks to housing projects that built
mostly within special urban renewal areas—like the Pearl District
and along N Interstate—where public transit use is likely.
But while smart-growth advocates applaud Metro keeping urban growth
in check, not everyone is pleased with the idea. The national Lincoln
Institute of Land Policy made a short video about the current debate
over Portland’s growth. In the video, a couple, Tom and Gloria Gilbert,
expressed anger that they are not allowed to turn their seven rural
acres into a subdivision.
“Why let the land sit here because some city folk want to come out
and see open spaces?” says Tom Gilbert.
And the new-jobs-to-new-people ratio is troubling, because all those children and retirees are going to be looking for work. All of them. Right?
One job per two people seems about right to me, with a moment’s thought…
Both Metro and the Lincoln Institute are full of shit.
First of all, the projections are total pipe dreams of corporations, bankers, realtors, and developers who want more people and more consumption here in order to profit. Metro is supposed to remain neutral about growth, but in reality they want it, because it supposedly boosts the economy. But this is not in line with either sound economics or sustainably.
Second, the only way that ANY growth can happen, whether within the UGB or outside, is through MASSIVE public, taxpayer subsidies. The UGB was expanded into Damascus years ago, yet no developments have happened there because builders cannot profit from them without the public subsidies for all the System Development Charges that there is no public money to pay for. Metro’s Michael Jordan states that it will take $20-30 billion dollars of public money in order to make the projections come true within the UGB, but you can rest assured that he is grossly underguesstimating. He claims that unless we taxpayers cough up the money to squeeze them all within the UGB, we will see uncontained sprawl within all the seven surrounding counties. This claim is bogus. To build outside the UGB is inherently more expensive than inside, and those counties are even poorer than Metro’s three counties are. As well, burgeoning growth within any concentrated area always puts pressure outside the area for more growth. So “building up” will not stop but rather will encourage “building out,” and what we end up with is the worst of all worlds: dense sprawl. But that’s IF we can cough up the taxpayer money for it.
Even if Jordan and Metro succeed in selling us this swamp land, builders still will have a hard time finding markets for their junk boxes. The hopeful mainstream paradigm is for us now climbing out of this little bump of a recession and going back to destroying the planet business as usual with more buildings, more roads, and more cars and consumer toys. But the planet has limits, to which we’re now bumping up against, and the recession is not just tied intrinsically to banker greed but to those planetary limits. In other words, there is no easy ride ahead for the banker/war led growth as usual, and there aren’t going to be the jobs and incomes for new workers in line to buy the crap houses and condos.
Last of all, the attitude of entitlement of the poor little Tom and Gloria Gilberts is astonishing, but so typically American. THEY deserve their little cash cow courtesy of all the area’s taxpayers, and we aren’t giving it to them soon enough. Poor little babies. They are such good citizens, too, aren’t they?
No, they are ignorant fools, just like the whole of the pro-growth area government officials and business people.
Bottom line: our population simply will not grow unless enough taxpayer money is extorted to make sure that it does in order to line the pockets of special interest industries. It’s not like new hordes will be sleeping under bridges or in cars and your backyard if we don’t build more houses. Think about it.
Besides the continued capitalism gone amuck hope by developers lets face it, people may move here but then they also leave. Its cold and jobs are scarce because business minded people know the workforce sucks so they give up and go away. Really its still pretty much a cow-town even though it thinks a lot of itself it just ain’t got anywhere to go.
Portland: Quest for the Livable City is a 57-minute documentary film produced by Northern Light Productions. It’s part of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy’s series Making Sense of Place. http://www.lincolninst.edu/subcenters/maki…
Sarah, you seem to be assuming that suburban counties are only for homes. Couldn’t good land-use policy theoretically expand the UGB to allow more office development in the burbs?
Anyway, saying that the solution to our lack of jobs is to freeze everything just as it is (no infill, no UGB expansion) doesn’t make much sense, obviously.