We’ll have Blogtown lighting up like an immolating monk tomorrow evening, with coverage of all the results and election night parties from our news team: Matt Davis, Steve Humphrey, Stefan Kamph, Sarah Mirk, and Angela Webber. Sass-minded Arts & Web Editor Alison Hallett and triply sass-minded Copy Chief Courtney Ferguson will also be reporting for us, along with interns Noah Dunham and January Vawter.
Before that, I’m going to offer my sincere assessment of what’s going to happen tomorrow night. If I were a betting man, and I really try not to be, I’d lay $50 on the following. But not with you:
•City Commissioner Dan Saltzman will go to a runoff with rival Jesse Cornett. Mary Volm and the broad field of other candidates, including Spencer Burton, Ed Garren and Rudy Soto, will successfully keep the former police commissioner from walking into yet another term, with Cornett getting just over 30% of the vote, compared to Saltzman on 45-48%. It won’t be a glorious night for Cornett, but he’ll be relieved to have proven himself in this early round. Now, a tough slog for the vote in November, and Cornett will need to keep the pressure on.
•City Commissioner Nick Fish absolutely crushes it—making Saltzman’s failure to get over the hump even more humiliating. Like, 96% of the vote? We think it’s possible. We’ll be watching Fish desperately trying to contain his victory whoops during his 8:15pm remarks (Why schedule them for 8:15, Nick? Why not 8:01? Or 7:59? Like, start your speech before the results are even in…) “There’s still a lot of work to do,” etcetera. Especially because Fish is sharing his party with Metro candidate Rex Burkholder, who may not even get through the primary…awkward…
•Democratic Gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber will walk it in the primary. Sorry, Bill Bradbury, but your polls haven’t been improving. So much for idealism. So much for reelecting the same dude being a disappointment.
•Allen Alley will come from behind and beat Chris Dudley in a surprise upset. I’m going out on a limb here, but I think undecided Republicans have seen through Dudley’s terrible debate performances and want someone like Alley with experience in job creation. And an IQ that actually exceeds his height in inches. Dudley just makes Republican voters feel stupid, and they’re not stupid. Not here in Oregon. The Wall Street Journal can suck it, by the way.
•County Commissioner race will go to a runoff between Karol Collymore and one other candidate—Loretta Smith, Maria Rubio or Chuck Currie. Possibly Tom Markgraf. We’d be amazed if Collymore walked this one, the field is simply too wide open and despite her best efforts, the other candidates have also been campaigning hard.
•Metro: There’ll be a runoff between Tom Hughes and one of the others—probably Rex Burkholder. Hughes will win it easily in the fall. Hell, he might even win it in the primary. “Blah blah blah jobs.” “Blah blah blah affable.” Sorry, Bob Stacey. We love your CRC stance, but the region is broad and Hughes has the mass appeal.
In most cases I’d like to be wrong, but I’ll probably be right. The one race I’m kinda unsure of is Saltzman’s. Anything could happen, there. Anything at all…
Since you are unsure of Saltzman’s race… then are you willing to lay down $50 the it it will be:
Mary Volm and Saltzman in the runoff
Though highly unlikely, seeing Volm and Cornett in a runoff would be a good thing for Portland.
Matt, can you elaborate a little on why you think Rex will make it into the run off, then, instead of Bob?
I really hope you’re right about Allen Alley.
I think you are way off on a few of these. But we will know soon enough, yeah?
I’m surprised that you listed every candidate for County Commissioner except for Paul van Orden. I think he will surprise you.
Given Mary Volm’s association with team-recall, I don’t think anything involving her would be a good thing for Portland.
“Lighting up like an immolating monk”? Seriously? Were you impressed with yourself when you wrote that?
“We’ll have Blogtown lighting up like an immolating monk tomorrow evening”
What.
“We’ll have Blogtown lighting up like an immolating monk tomorrow evening”
Smug smug smug smug smug.
Matt,
I agree with all your predictions except….I don’t think there will be a run-off for Saltzman’s seat. And I am ready and willing to put up $50 on that one race.
My sole evidence for this prediction:
1) I live in NE Portland and haven’t seen any non-Saltzman yard signs in and around my haunts (Vernon/Woodlawn/Concordia). In contrast, I have seen quite the mix of signs for the County Commissioner position.
Given that the management of the Police Bureau has been made the primary issue in the commissioner race, if the challengers aren’t motivating folks on the Eastside enough to “wave the flag” for them, it is hard to imagine enough votes being picked up away from the incumbent on the westside to make the difference.
For what it’s worth there are no signs in my yard. Why? Although I voted, I don’t feel excited enough about any of the candidates to publicly post my choices. I don’t think I am alone on that one.
2) Voter turn-out is low. This tends to favor the incumbent due to nothing more than familiarity unless you have a truly motivated base for a challenger.
The most prominent challenger is having to pay for canvassers, so I think the “motivated base” part of the equation is moot.
Anyhoo, let me know if you are game for the bet. If I win I’ll give your $50 to Mercy Corps. If I lose buy yourself a meal in NOLA.
Pretty sure wagering on elections is protected by the constitution, it’s why we fought the revolutionary war…ask any tea bagger.
It should be “self-immolating,” anyway…
Mr. Fuentes is right–just look at the results last time Commissioner Saltzman was up, and faced a relatively unknown, but publicly financed challenger (whom the Mercury endorsed), plus a slate of, um, more colorful characters: http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/electio…
The Commissioner ended up with 57 percent of the vote to Mrs. Fritz’ 25 percent. I think it’s a stretch to think Mr. Cornett gets much more than 25 percent, or that Commissioner Saltzman gets much less than 54.
Here’s hoping Saltzman is forced into a run off. Interested to see if Huffman can get a good base to challenge Wyden in November. Also think you’re correct about the Dem Governor race. Bradbury numbers aren’t looking good.
Matt, I’d be curious what your thinking is on the Metro race. Here in the SE – prime territory for both Rex and Bob – I see a heck of a lot more Bob Stacey signs. Actually, I’ve seen a lot of Bob Stacey signs, and maybe one Rex sign, in an office window on Hawthorne.
People don’t know what Metro does unless they care about issues like the CRC and the Urban Growth Boundary. If they’re on the greenie side of those issues, they’re going to vote for Stacey.
1.I stand by wholeheartedly by my immolation remarks. By this Thursday you’ll be longing for me to revert to Monday’s maturity levels, believe me.
2.If Dan Saltzman avoids a runoff, my disappointment with the Portland electorate will plummet to a new low. Given that my respect for that group is already on a par with that commonly afforded to David Furnish as a filmmaker (oh my God, he’s making something this year called “Gnomeo and Juliet…”), I really would be saddened. But perhaps more sadly, you’re right…not altogether surprised.
3.Dan Saltzman. Got fired. As police commissioner. 6 days. Before. His. Primary. OMFG people, even the mayor thinks he’s incompetent.Not to mention the whole “I’m too shy to disclose a massively unethical conflict while voting to give over half a million dollars to my girlfriend’s charity” fiasco. You really wanna waste a vote on the dude? Go ahead.
4.Stoned robot.
@Inductee
Fortunately the future of this region is not decided by those living in inner SE Portland. Sure, Bob Stacey is popular there, for the same reason we endorsed him, because he dislikes the Columbia River Crossing. But across the region, I suspect the centrist appeal of Tom Hughes will bring this one home. I could be totally wrong, of course. But Stacey will strike most non Portlanders as a bang-the-drum liberal environmentalist in a dud economy. Tom Hughes bought Intel to Hillsboro and kept ’em there. Do the numbers…
And again, my question is why Rex over Bob, then, Matt?
@Matt,
Oh, I don’t doubt the centrist appeal of Hughes, and that being a force to reckon with in a region-wide race.
My question is more about the Rex vs. Stacey faceoff. Those two seem to be drawing from the same pool. And within this group, voters are either: 1) pissed at Rex about his support for the CRC and instead support Bob, or they’re: 2) pissed at Rex about the CRC, but for whatever reason support him anyway.
Now it may be that Rex has been saying all the right things to the highway builders and unions; they of course have considerable influence. Is that what you base your thinking on?
Between Rex and Bob, if we’re looking at what the parts of Portland other than just inner-SE thinks, I would guess that – other than his freeway-construction-as-jobs-program stance – Rex comes off as a bike-riding liberal weenie. One who lives in SE. That, I would guess, would – in the eyes of the rest of the region – put him on the same strata as any tree-hugger.
Full disclosure: in case you couldn’t tell, I’m pulling for Bob Stacey.
And SPEAKING of Bob Stacey, he has the endorsement of three former governors, Earl Blumenauer, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation voters! Pretty on-track with this center-left region, yes? Even the non-inner-SE parts of the region.
Metro handles the Urban Growth Boundary. The UGB protects the land, in the grand tradition of Tom McCall (who, it should be noted, was hardly a bomb-tossing lefty). People who care about protecting the land will hopefully want Metro to keep doing that. And – I hope – vote for Bob.
If Metro can help create jobs in the process, that’s great. But Metro shouldn’t discard its every other mission in that one pursuit.
@inductee: Rex Burkholder has clearly sacrificed his progressive principles in a bid to get elected Metro President. He doesn’t seem to stand for shit these days, and his adverts aren’t funny. Just five minutes with him and I think most voters would be turned off. He’s just a terrible campaigner, no matter how smart he is.
Now, at least Stacey has principles. And if you’re appealing to principled folks, well, principles’ll help. He may be a granola-eating nutbag, but granola-eating nutbags tend to vote for those. So that’s why I think he’s got the edge. Despite Burkholder raising a lot more cash.
Amanda and Dan split 25-57 last time. This time that 82 will be split three ways, and it is hard to see any of the three getting 50.
Metro Prez is wonks’ delight, Stacey is wonk central, which should get him into the general, probably against Hughes.
Should Volm and Cornett duel in the general, Matt, you must return!
@Matt:
“Now, at least Stacey has principles. And if you’re appealing to principled folks, well, principles’ll help. He may be a granola-eating nutbag, but granola-eating nutbags tend to vote for those. So that’s why I think he’s got the edge.”
Awesome. But… Isn’t that the opposite of what you said in the article? I’m confused.
Intellectual consistency is not Mr. Davis’ strong suit.
Matt,
I appreciate your sentiments but even though Commissioner Saltzman is vulnerable, no candidate has effectively sparked that tinder.
In fact, I think the general apathy about the city commissioner candidate options is reflected in the Merc’s endorsement of Mr. Cornett:
http://blogtown.portlandmercury.com/Blogto…
Maybe it’s just me but that hardly reads as an anti-Saltzman scree. All the swipes are at the Mayor’s expense and more ink is spent on the good things that Commissioner Saltzman has done in the past than the details of Mr. Cornett’s positions.
The bottom-line is that “Anybody but X” only goes so far. In the end, people want to vote FOR someone.
Sorry but I don’t think that combo is enough to put Saltzman under 50 percent tomorrow.
But I could be wrong…which COULD mean more moving money for you…if you are willing to take my friendly wager.
I voted for Cornett. I was set to do it weeks ago to punish Saltzman for his handling of the PPB, reconsidered once he was ‘off the case’, but was ultimately persuaded by the argument that it doesn’t make sense to reward him for failing so hard that he lost the bureau.