One of my favorite things about election season? Nate Silver. Last night, he put up a post looking at the problem with the current crop of Republican presidential candidates: None of them have exceptional likability scores. Silver goes through the last twenty years of presidential elections and sees a pattern: The people who wind up winning usually begin the contest with exceptionally high likability numbers, especially when compared to their unlikability numbers. Even the most obscure candidates—like Bill Clinton at the beginning of the 92 race—had a favorable ratio. This year’s Republican crop is not doing so well on that front:
The problem with this field is that it’ll be really hard for candidates to increase their likability, since they’ll be playing to three distinct fields: The regular Republican party, the tea party, and moderate independents. If they try to shore up one demographic, they’ll lose ground in at least one of the other two.
Well the numbers are skewed when the understood definition of “like” in this case means ‘one who Obama can beat handily’
Meanwhile, Obama’s at a 51% approval rating. Two years out, not a bad place to start campaigning from. But a lot can happen.
I don’t see Caribou Barbie digging her way out of that hole, though.
Ugh, please don’t start campaigning two years out. There should be a LAW saying that election season begins three months before the election (the primaries can be squeezed in there).
Are we assuming there are likable Republicans? Seems highly unlikely.
I’m surprised they could get a statistically significant number of people who’ve heard of John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, or Mitch Daniels. This stuff is goofy. Beyond inside baseball.
Hey Bush, and Obama initially came off as affable guys, and they’ve both managed to tag team this country into a new dark age.
@ROM: It’s not two years out. 21 months. GAME ON!