Wednesday, September 26—after we go to press—is
the deadline for two anti-gay referenda campaigns to turn in 55,179
valid signatures. If they succeed, Oregon’s two new gay rights
laws—one that creates domestic partnerships, and another that
protects against discrimination—head to the November 2008 ballot
for a public vote.
But in the days leading up to the Wednesday deadline, it seemed that
the groups gathering signatures were going to be cutting it close. Late
last week, Marylin Shannon, a former state senator and spokesperson for
Let Oregon Vote, told reporters that petitioners had gathered roughly
40,000 signatures, and hoped for 25,000 more by the deadline. On
Monday, Restore America’s David Crowe claimed that 5,000 signatures had
found their way—via volunteer couriers—to Concerned
Oregonians, a coalition of petitioners. He asked supporters to drum up
2,000 more. According to a source familiar with the campaign, Crowe has
also indicated that the campaign is aiming for 60,000 to 65,000
signatures, which matches up with Shannon’s goal.
If the campaign’s leaders are being honest about their
goals—and if they’re meeting their own bar—then all eyes
will be on the signature verification process at the secretary of
state’s office as staffers scrutinize the petitions. A total of 65,000
signatures leaves little room for error if the petitioners hope to make
the ballot.
Signature validity rates fluctuate, though volunteers generally have
a higher validity rate, according to the secretary of state’s office.
The volunteer-led campaign to put Measure 36 on the ballot had an 86
percent validity rate, while initiatives in 2006 averaged 70.25
percent. Doing the math, that means the anti-gay activists need to turn
in over 64,000 signatures and hope for a high validity rate of 86
percent to land on the ballot. If their validity rate were closer to
the 2006 average, they’d need to turn in nearly 79,000 signatures.
Election staffers will be sorting the petitions—checking for
things like circulators’ signatures or correct dates, and rejecting
entire sheets that aren’t numbered by the chief
petitioners—before doing statistical sampling of individual
signatures. Observers from both sides of the issue will be on hand to
watchdog the process.
“Two people from Basic Rights Oregon and two people from the chief
petitioners will be allowed to watch,” says Mary Conley with the
secretary of state’s office. “We want everyone to have a fair chance
with it.”
On Tuesday evening, it appeared that the petitioners hadn’t even
decided if they had enough signatures to take a gamble on their
validity rate: In a last ditch rallying email to supporters, Crowe said
that on Wednesday afternoon, Shannon would “make a determination
whether there are enough signatures to meet the state’s
requirement.”