We’ve arrived at the end point. Sunday marks the final day of the 2015 MLS regular season, and, along with most of the rest of the league, the Portland Timbers head into their final match at Providence Park against the Colorado Rapids with everything to play for.
With a win, Portland qualifies for the MLS Cup Playoffs for the just the second time. A draw will most likely get the Timbers over the line too, while even a loss could do — depending on other results around the Western Conference. The Timbers could rise as high as second place on Sunday and drop as low as seventh. At about 6:30 PM tomorrow, we’ll know if the Timbers have made the postseason, if they’ll be playing at home, and who their opponent will be. We’re about to watch one of the most exciting days in franchise history.
The History
Sunday is MLS’ first Decision Day. Based on the English Premier League’s system of every team playing and kicking off simultaneously on the final day of the season, all Eastern Conference MLS teams will play at 2:00 PM, and all Western Conference teams will kick at 4:00.
The Timbers, of course, are coming off of one of the banner wins of the MLS era — a come-from-behind 5-2 thrashing of the LA Galaxy in Carson. The competition on Sunday is last-placed Colorado, and while the Rapids certainly don’t have the pedigree of the Galaxy, they did just knock Sporting Kansas City on Wednesday night. This match most likely won’t be a walkover for the Timbers. They should win, but this is MLS — expect the unexpected.
The unexpected was certainly what happened in the only previous meeting of the year between these two teams in late May, when Jack Jewsbury snatched a stoppage time winner in Commerce City to steal a vital win for a Timbers team that was then struggling.
Colorado hasn’t been to Portland since last year, when they were beaten by a cannon of a strike from Diego Valeri. Among the many festivities planned for Sunday’s match is a pre-game tifo from the Timbers Army, and the post-game awarding of the Supporters’ Player of the Year.
The Tactics
Tactics have been the name of the game for the Timbers since Caleb Porter resurrected the team’s season by going to an inverted 4-3-3 for the matches last week against Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles. The change has given Portland an entirely new energy, unlocked Darlington Nagbe, and gotten Lucas Melano involved.
Unfortunately, Diego Valeri picked up yet another yellow card for kicking the ball away after a call late in the LA game and got himself suspended for this season finale. It was a selfish and idiotic move from Valeri, who knew he had to avoid picking up a booking at all costs. As he personally and the team has struggled offensively this year, there has been a striking uptick in Valeri’s on-field petulance. It needs to be curbed.
Because the Timbers let Gaston Fernandez walk, no obvious replacement for Valeri exists. Porter could change the formation back to a 4-2-3-1 and insert George Fochive into the team, or push Diego Chara higher up the field and use Fochive as the single pivot. Other options include Dairon Asprilla, Michael Nanchoff, and Maxi Urruti, but it’s highly doubtful that it would be worth shoehorning any of the three into the team.
The status of both Jewsbury and Will Johnson are unclear. Both trained fully at the end of this week, but both are coming off of injuries — and with Johnson especially, there doesn’t seem to be any real reason to rush him back into a team that no longer really has a place or need for him. Alvas Powell, meanwhile, is set to return to the lineup after serving his suspension in place of Taylor Peay.
Colorado will look to sit back and counter. They have plenty of scrappy Premier League veterans, and while they’re clearly not better than the Timbers, the longer they hang in the game, the more problems Portland will have. It’s imperative for the Timbers to score early. This game will stretch Porter tactically. If the last few games are any indicator, he’s up to the challenge.
The Lineup
12 – Kwarasey
2 – Powell
24 – Ridgewell (C)
7 – Borchers
19 – Villafaña
5 – Fochive
21 – Chara
6 – Nagbe
22 – Wallace
26 – Melano
9 – Adi
The Pick
I’m not going to pretend to know what we’re going to get from the Timbers on Sunday, but the feeling that this team is finally playing it’s best soccer is palpable after the LA result. My best guess? A 1-0 win.
