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The Timbers battle the Vancouver Whitecaps for the third and final time this season in MLS play on Saturday night at 7:30 at Providence Park. Including a now-infamous preseason friendly, this is Vancouver’s third game against the Timbers in Portland this yearโ€”and in those games, the Whitecaps are yet to concede a goal.

But it’s the Timbers who are healthy, optimistic, and ready to surpass Vancouver in the Western Conference standings for the first time this year with a win. Portland has won five straight home games, and early on Friday morning announced the signing of new DP striker Lucas Melano for a club record fee of $5 million dollars. It’s another big Cascadia derby in the offing in downtown Portland.

The History

The Whitecaps and Timbers rivalry, once somewhat docile, has added plenty of relevant history and interesting factors over the last two years. In 2014, the Timbers had the Whitecaps’ number โ€” beating them by a combined score of 6-0 in two games at the end of the season โ€” but Vancouver made the playoffs at Portland’s expense.

This year, it’s been all Whitecaps. Vancouver knocked out Portland’s Ben Zemanski in a preseason friendly win at Providence Park, then got a smash-and-grab 2-1 win at BC Place, and scrapped out a 0-0 draw in Portland in early May.

This game has major Cascadia Cup implicationsโ€”both teams need a winโ€”but it will be played without the central figure in this rivalry. Pa Modou Kah is, perhaps unsurprisingly, injured. Coaches Carl Robinson and Caleb Porter are frequent adversaries, friends, and two of the most promising young coaches in the league. Tactically, it’s often been a battle Porter has won.

The Tactics

Portland got a surprising and somewhat disconcerting boost this week when Alvas Powell walked out of Jamaica’s Gold Cup camp and returned to Portland. The circumstances around Powell’s departure have been murkyโ€”there have been grumblings in Jamaica that Powell was unhappy with not startingโ€”but the Timbers are staunchly standing by their man and the young full-back will start on Saturday night.

Good thing too, because Taylor Peay struggled mightily in Philadelphia last weekend, and was, somewhat cruelly, voted man of the match by Timbers fans. The first choice defense should be intact once again, with Jorge Villafaรฑa coming back in for the similarly dismal Jeanderson.

Adam Kwarasey, Diego Chara, and Darlington Nagbe were all absent due to injury against the Union, but should all be back for this match. Porter has the opportunity to play the same front six that ripped apart Seattleโ€”his biggest choice might be Gaston Fernandez or Dairon Asprilla. Fanendo Adi should retain his starting spot up top.

The Whitecaps, who embarked on a month-long road trip for the FIFA Women’s World Cup during June and July, are struggling with a number of high-profile absences. Kah’s center-back partner Kendal Waston was a late call-up for Costa Rica’s Gold Cup effortโ€”they have a quarterfinal against Mexico on Sundayโ€”meaning Vancouver’s central defense will be American youngster Tim Parker and Argentine vet Diego Rodriguez, who has had some parallels this year to Norberto Paparatto last year for the Timbers.

Akron Zipโ€”and reported one-time Timbers targetโ€”Darron Mattocks is at the Gold Cup too, captain and superstar midfielder Pedro Morales is hurt, and DP forward Octavio Rivero has cooled off considerably since the spring. All things told, this game continues Portland’s remarkable streak of luck in playing short-handed teams at home.

The Lineup

12 – Kwarasey
2 – Powell
24 – Ridgewell
7 – Borchers
19 – Villafaรฑa
4 – W. Johnson (C)
21 – Chara
6 – Nagbe
8 – Valeri
10 – Fernandez
9 – Adi

The Pick

The Whitecaps shouldn’t have the firepower to hang onto the Timbers like they did in the teams’ first two meetings this year. 2-0 Portland.

Abe Asher covers city news, politics, and soccer for the Portland Mercury. His reporting has appeared in The Nation, VICE News, Sahan Journal, and other outlets.