It’s hard to believe that anyone — let alone everyone — has fully recovered from one of the greatest MLS games ever played on Thursday night at Providence Park. Including stoppage time, it took around 130 minutes of soccer, 22 penalty kicks, and several acts of God for the Portland Timbers still be playing today, but here they are: The first leg of the Western Conference Semifinal against Cascadia rival Vancouver kicks off at 2:00 PM on ESPN today (Sunday).
Now well into their 65 or so hours of recovery time between the two games, another huge match is fast approaching. This could go one of two ways. Either the Timbers will be reality checked — by fatigue, injury, and a reversal of the razor-thin margins that so obviously rule the MLS playoffs; or they’ll beat the laws of reality once again, win another home game, and take a huge step towards their second Western Conference Final in three years.
The History
What happened on Thursday night is shortly going to be more legend than history. But Portland has been something resembling this position before. Two years ago when the Timbers knocked Seattle out of the playoffs on a Thursday night, they then had to play in Salt Lake that Sunday and were bludgeoned 4-2. For all intents and purposes, it was the end of their 2013 playoff run.
The odds facing the Timbers right now are, in some ways, more daunting. That Seattle game didn’t go to extra time, and Salt Lake had played on Thursday as well. This time around, Vancouver is on normal rest having been idle since their last regular season match last Sunday.
But there is plenty of reason for the Timbers to be confident — namely that they know they’re better than Vancouver. The results this year — a win for the Whitecaps and two draws — don’t tell the story of a series that Portland has historically dominated in MLS. In fourteen MLS games against Vancouver, the Timbers have only ever lost twice. In the past, they’ve had Vancouver’s number.
Carl Robinson and Caleb Porter are good friends and good rivals, and both want to end the other’s season. One man who links the two clubs, the effervescent Pa Modou Kah, is set to miss both legs through injury. This is the first MLS playoff meeting between Portland and Vancouver, but the two clubs have plenty of playoff history in other leagues and competitions.
The Tactics
This is where Porter has to make his money. The Timbers boss made a big call against Kansas City by playing the old captain Jack Jewsbury in the heart of the inverted 4-3-3, and Jewsbury did a nice job. But at 34 and on two days rest, Porter might have to look at other options in central midfield.
The best option, of course, it the return of Diego Chara. The Columbian was held out of the game on Thursday night after picking up an injury in the final regular season game against Colorado last Sunday, and if he can go, the Timbers get that much more dangerous. Especially in the new preferred formation, Chara’s presence is beyond vital. He’s a game-time decision.
But if Chara can’t play, or if the Timbers want to give him more time ahead of the second leg next Sunday in Vancouver, anything could happen. George Fochive had his worst outing of the year after coming on late against Kansas City, looking nervous in the most important game of his career, and he can’t be counted on to distribute well enough to play in the 4-3-3.
If ever there was going to be a time for Will Johnson to play again in 2015, it’d be now. Johnson hasn’t seen any minutes since late September, and even though he’s dressed for the last two games, he’s been behind the three other healthy players in his position. Johnson won’t start, but he might have to be an option off the bench.
Around that spot, things appear to be mostly settled. The back-line will remain intact, as, most likely, will the front five. Portland is still looking for a little bit more out of Lucas Melano, and there is an outside chance that Fanendo Adi will be replaced by Maxi Urruti because of the matchup and the bruising Adi took against Kansas City.
Look for Caleb Porter to go to his bench far earlier than he did against Sporting. Dairon Asprilla’s performance in the last game surely has earned him some more minutes.
Vancouver has been dealing with injury problems of their own. Besides Kah, captain and talisman Pedro Morales’ status is in doubt, while other attackers like Nicholas Mezquida and Mauro Rosales have played very few minutes over the last month.
The Whitecaps’ defense is their calling card, with a spine of Matias Laba, Kendall Waston, and David Ousted keeping them in most games. Kakuta Manneh is the danger man in the attack, but Vancouver will look to counter and pick their spots — much like Sporting did — and there’s zero chance that they’ll be able to play Portland off the field or, most likely, put this series away in the first game. Despite being the lower seed, the Timbers have the talent advantage over their rival.
The Lineups
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 – Ousted (C)
33 – Beitashour
26 – Parker
4 – Waston
2 – Harvey
28 – Koffie
15 – Laba
13 – Techara
7 – Rosales
23 – Manneh
29 – Rivero
Portland Timbers
12 – Kwarasey
2 – Powell
24 – Ridgewell (C)
7 – Borchers
19 – Villafaña
21 – Chara
6 – Nagbe
8 – Valeri
22 – Wallace
26 – Melano
9 – Adi
The Pick
These have been tight games this year, and the Timbers know they’re the better team, but how much can they possibly have in the tank for this game? It’ll finish 1-1, and leave everything on the table for next Sunday at BC Place.
