As an all-out war over redistricting upends voting rights law and a battle over congressional maps plays out across the country, Democrats are looking for opportunities to cancel out Republican gains—and they have their sights set on Oregon.
Oregon, like all states, redraws its state legislative and congressional maps regularly following the release of each new US Census. The next redistricting process is scheduled to take place in 2031, with maps approved five years ago in place until then.
But the events of the last year have seen numerous states break with tradition and tear their existing maps up. The scramble began when, at the behest of the Trump White House, Texas redrew its congressional district maps last year to more heavily favor Republicans—prompting a response from California and a raft of other states.
Now, following a Supreme Court ruling gutting the Voting Rights Act and a Virginia Supreme Court ruling nullifying that state’s mid-decade Democratic gerrymander, that scramble appears to be benefiting Republicans: As things currently stand, mid-decade redistricting stands to net the GOP as many as 11 extra seats this November.
Oregon, where Democrats control the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the State Legislature, is theoretically one state where Democrats could possibly aim to pick up a House seat via a mid-decade redistricting effort. The state’s House delegation currently includes one Republican, Rep. Cliff Bentz, whose district covers Eastern Oregon.
Despite pressure from national Democratic Party figures and groups, that effort hasn’t happened so far. Oregon Democrats have not yet made any public move to redraw the congressional map, and Luke Harkins, Gov. Tina Kotek’s press secretary, wrote in an email to the Mercury that the governor is not considering redistricting “at this time.”
There may be several reasons why. One is the particularities of Oregon’s legislative process: if Democrats attempted to pass a redistricting bill, Republicans could stage a walkout like they have frequently in recent years.
A Republican walkout over redistricting would not be entirely unprecedented. In 2021, when the state legislature was redrawing its maps following the finalization of the previous year’s US Census, House Republicans staged a two-day walkout to protest proposed maps they felt unfairly favored Democrats.
The Democrats ultimately passed their maps after House Republicans returned to the chamber on the last day of that year’s special session, but that decision was motivated in part by the fact that had the legislature failed to pass maps, the responsibility would have shifted to then-Secretary of State Shemia Fagan—another Democrat.
It is not clear, however, how a mid-decade redistricting process might play out, particularly if Republicans walked out of a legislative session. The stakes of a walkout would be high for both parties: a walkout could derail not only redistricting, but an entire legislative session.
“If [Democrats] decide to do this, it’s almost certain Republicans would walk out—and they would really have to ask themselves, is the juice worth the squeeze? And I kind of doubt that they would think that it is for one district,” John Horvick, senior vice president at DHM Research, said.
What does seem clear is that Oregon will not redraw its congressional districts this year. The state’s May 19 primary is over, and unlike in Louisiana, the state made no effort to interrupt the primary to redistrict.
That means that, even if the state’s Democratic power structure was interested in redistricting, the earliest new congressional district lines could take effect would be for the 2028 election.
That timing, Horvick said, could act as another deterrent for proponents of redistricting.
“Oregon’s really likely to lose a legislative seat—and I know that will be on the other side of redistricting after the next census, but it seems like it would weaken the argument to draw a 6-0 seat for just two cycles,” he said, noting the Democratic Party would likely lose a newly-drawn sixth Democratic seat in 2032.
But that logic does not appear to be stopping national Democrats, who already have their sights set on leveling the playing field for 2028. Speaker Hakeem Jeffries recently told CNN that states like Oregon must act “aggressively” to combat Republican redistricting efforts, and Democratic Party-aligned groups appear to be on the same page.
NBC News reported last month, for instance, that The States Project, a Democratic-aligned organization that focuses on state legislatures, is preparing to invest in legislative races in Oregon with an eye on securing a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate.
Should the Democrats win a supermajority in the state Senate, keep their supermajority in the state House, and retain the governorship, redistricting over the objections of legislative Republicans may be a more realistic possibility.
Then there is the question of whether it would even be possible to draw six winnable districts for Democrats in a state where Donald Trump won 41 percent of the vote two years ago. Oregon has never had an all-Democratic congressional delegation, and a Republican has held Bentz’s 2nd Congressional District seat since 1981.
Horvick said it is possible to draw six Democratic-leaning districts, but the districts would be far less compact than they are now.
“The logic is, you make all six districts come into the Portland metro area, and then you just stretch them out as far as you need to into the rural areas,” Horvick said.
Horvick said the 2nd District, for instance, could be redrawn to include parts of East Portland, include Bend, and then swing all the way down to the Nevada border in the southeastern quadrant of the state. Other districts would similarly sprawl.
That is likely not, in a vacuum, what Oregonians want. Horvick said that if a redistricting plan designed to hand all six of the state’s House seats to Democrats was referred to the ballot, Democrats could face a “tough” fight to get it approved.
“During the redistricting process before, we asked Oregonians in a state survey what should the partisan makeup be? And 4-2, 3-3 is where most Oregonians think that it should be,” Horvick said. “Very, very, very few people think it should be 6-0.”
Of course, times have changed since Oregon last redistricted five years ago. Given the extremism of the Republican Party in the Trump era, and Trump’s unpopularity in Oregon, it is possible voters may view a mid-decade redistricting effort differently now than they might have just a handful of years ago.
Horvick said it’s clear that while voters would, in a vacuum, prefer less partisanship and controversy, they also increasingly see the opposition party as an existential threat.
“People don’t want this, but they also really, really don’t want the other side to win,” Horvick said. “And so they’re willing to sacrifice their desires for moderation or less controversy or less of this political gamesmanship to prevent the other side from winning.”
Kotek, who is currently one of the country’s least popular governors, may be reliant on that willingness to retain her seat and keep national Democrats’ hopes of redistricting alive.
“People can be really mad at politics, they can be really mad at the parties, but people are more afraid of the other party—and that makes them very reactive to what the other side is doing,” Horvick said.
