The question has been asked: Has the continuing drip of news about Jefferson Smith’s 1993 assault case killed his campaign? A SurveyUSA poll released today, conducted for KATU right when news of the case was breaking, shows Smith’s rival, Charlie Hales, only slightly extending his lead from a poll conducted just a few weeks ago.
But two things are worth noting: First, the poll of 513 Portlanders wrapped up just as the worst-yet story for Smith was emerging—the release of a police report and an interview with the woman he punched in the face during what’s now become an infamous scuffle at an off-campus college party. Second, voters who don’t know who they’ll choose no longer make up the largest plurality of respondents—breaking fairly decisively in Hales’ favor.
As it stands, Hales is ahead 37 percent to 30 percent, with 33 percent of voters still undecided. Last month, the numbers stood at 34 percent to 29 percent, with 37 percent still undecided. Hales now exceeds the margin of error in the KATU poll, which is plus or minus 4.4 percent.
It’s not disastrous for Smith, not yet at least, but it does show he’s facing an even deeper hole with time running out. A looming question is whether and how much the assault story will dampen the enthusiasm that sits at the core of his operation’s ground game—a factor that helped strongly push him into the runoff in May.
SurveyUSA didn’t ask about the tight runoff between incumbent Commissioner Amanda Fritz and State Representative Mary Nolan, inquiring, instead, about three local measures. And while it looks good for the schools bond and the library district, which have sizable leads, I’d say the arts income tax pushed hard by city hall is in trouble. Only 21 percent of respondents said they would back it, compared to 22 percent saying “no.”
I wouldn’t vote for either of these losers (unless one promised me a job. Hi, Amy!)
I’m really sad for our town. Great city, we deserve better than these two assholes.
What’s the big deal about punching a woman in the face, right Denis?
If I only read the Merc, I would not have any idea that there was a continuing drip of news about Mr. Smith’s 1993 assault incident, including reports that the victim only released the police report after she was convinced Mr. Smith lied during his press conference (because she has a vary differing recollection to the events from Mr. Smith’s vague and evolving explanations).
At least I’m up to date on re-hashed stories from Bikeportland.
Wow, the Mercury is covering this years’ Mayoral election? Whod’ve thought?
Getting a small bump isn’t all that impressive when you’re running against the Hindenburg.
I’m glad our elections on local, state and national levels come down to the 33% who are too clueless to form an opinion on anything until the day they sit down with their ballot. At which point, they probably throw darts. Makes you feel all warm about democracy don’t it?
The arts measure is badly designed and deceptive. Wait for a better one.