It’s been a while since we’ve seen a public poll in the Portland mayor’s race, and KPTV has finally obliged us. Results released last night—from a phone survey of 400 likely voters conducted April 28-30—confirm Charlie Hales’ ascent as the leader, just barely, but also show a big jump for Jefferson Smith, who’d been trailing Hales and Eileen Brady by a healthy margin in other recently released polls, both public and private.
And, just like other recent polls, “undecided” was still beating everyone, at 28 percent. (But that number, now that ballots have finally hit all the mailboxes they’ll hit, has undoubtedly begun to drop.) How reliable is the poll? Evan Manvel, a Smith supporter and Bike Walk Vote co-chair, writes in Blue Oregon that the polling firm, DHM Research, is “generally respected”—meaning these are hardly bunk numbers.
What I’m wondering now is if Brady—despite having raised more than a million bucks (and spent much of it)—will even make the November runoff. Some might argue Hales has stalled out, but she’s been stalled out for a lot longer, months longer, and doesn’t have the field operation that Smith has built. I asked some smart people about that possibility last week, and they told me I was reaching, based on the private polls they were seeing at the time. Now? It would seem anything is certainly possible. Really. Anything.
Well, okay, not quite anything. Sam Adams isn’t running, so no matter how well he might be polling, he can’t win. That said, KPTV threw his name in the mix just for kicks. And, well, he ever so slightly edged Smith. No doubt someone will say, “Imagine if he’d have actually campaigned!” Which might have some merit. Except that, if he was, so much about the past several months would have been so different if he’d diverted himself from his official duties (at a very shitty time) , that it’s really impossible to judge.
Click over to KPTV to see those results, and also some of the reasons respondents listed when asked why they’re backing the candidates they’re backing!
Too bad the race isn’t also young, ’cause I hear Sam Adams likes ’em Young & Tight.
But where is Max Brumm? I thought for sure tying himself up in a cowboy outfit would win over the Village People demographic.
Imagine if Sam had actually campaigned!
I’m imagining!
IMAGINATION
IMAGINATION
IMAGINAAAAYSHUNNNNN
On Bud Clark’s last day in office he was filmed sitting on a table in Council Chambers with his buddy Bill Naito reminiscing about mutual schemes. Bud spontaneously says Naito should be the next mayor.
Naito laconically takes the cigar from his mouth and slowly says, “No Bud. That’s a bad job.”
For me this sums up Portland politics. After Chair of the Multnomah County Commission, Mayor of Portland is the worst job in the state. There are no good parts to it. You have little or no power to make positive change. Outside vested interests control the agenda, and in a one-newspaper town, that agenda is cheap to manipulate. You will be hated by former friends and allies. Colleagues plot against you; the media will pounce on your faults. You will betray your ideals. The pay is bad. It attracts egotists, dilettantes, and stooges.
Is there a Cory Booker in town? A John Hickenlooper? A Gavin Newsom? Probably. Would they be inclined to lead our city? The answer is no.
Seriously though, if Adams had been campaigning, he would have cleaned up. Guarantee it.
Adams polling in fourth place is exactly why he didn’t run. He has more name recognition than the other three put together, which is the only thing that really matters in local races.
Adams would have gone down in flames. It would have been a much more interesting race though because we’d actually be talking about all the poor policy and outright corruption at City Hall.
J Renaud, that was interesting analysis. Thanks.
Thnks B. Candidates who speak obliquely need to be knocked back; say no to pothole chitchat.
See – Get mayoral candidates on record about police accountability @ http://www.mentalhealthportland.org/?p=150…
Can OPB get a little credit as co-sponsors of the survey?
Just sayin.
One. Million. Dollars. And fading rapidly. For a reason.
J-R People don’t get involved in politics, usually, for money. I tend to think, for the majority of them anyway, that decent money was never hard to make.
For better or worse.
I tend to think what drives the most of ’em is either power or ego.
You’d like to think it was sense of public duty and the overwhelming need to good for the common man, but I really don’t see that too often.
Power and ego. I am ashamed to realize my own growing cynical nature, but hey, I call ’em how I see ’em.
Adams, justly, would have gone downin flames – despite the wishes of Denis, obviously.