This past Wednesday morning, August 1, Jeff Merkley, Speaker
of the Oregon House of Representatives, was widely expected to file the
paperwork creating his campaign committee to unseat US Senator Gordon
Smith.
Merkley’s move came after months of speculation; rumors surfaced
that he had been in talks with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee (DSCC) two months ago [“Senate, Anyone,” News, May 24]. Now,
he’s making his first definitive move into the race.
That means he’ll be joining longtime political consultant Steve
Novick in the effort to knock off the Republican Smith—but it
also means they’ll be facing off against each other in next year’s May
primary. Even though they may be battling for the Democratic nomination
for the seat, Novick wants to take a collaborative approach to the
race—by traveling the state with Merkley and appearing at joint
events to talk about the need to replace Smith.
Aside from Smith, the one thing they may both have to contend with,
though, is the sense that neither of them were “first tier” choices for
the race. Those names—Peter DeFazio, Earl Blumenauer, John
Kitzhaber, etc.—have dropped off the list, either through
official announcements (DeFazio and Blumenauer), or through continued
silence (Kitzhaber). Still, insiders believe that the “second choice”
status will disappear once the campaigns shift into high
gear—especially now that Merkley and Novick have become the top
tier by being the only ones in the race.
A pair of interesting poll numbers preceded Merkley’s announcement.
Novick’s campaign released a poll last week that claimed to show that
he has higher name recognition than Merkley (46 percent to 39 percent),
and that Smith’s “reelect” number (the people who say they’ll
definitely vote for him again) is at 32 percent.
A separate poll, paid for by the DSCC, showed that Merkley was only
six points below Smith in the ratings, and that was weeks before
Merkley announced. Merkley and Novick aside, both polls say the same
thing: Gordon Smith is vulnerable.
“Gordon Smith’s approval ratings have plummeted,” says DSCC
spokesperson Matthew Miller. “We believe Jeff Merkley will be an
extremely strong candidate who will help change Washington, DC in a way
that Oregonians want.”
(As evidence of the careful, never-give-a-direct-answer way politics
work, that was Miller’s response to the question, “Is the DSCC going to
support Merkley in the primary against Novick?”)
With a slim, one-vote majority in the senate, all eyes will be on a
handful of contested races, with Oregon being somewhere between the
middle and the top of that list.
In the days leading up to his announcement, Merkley was laying low,
not returning phone calls from reporters. At press time, it was unclear
how his candidacy for senate would impact his current duties as speaker
of the house—or whether he’d step down from his position. The
legislature has already scheduled a special session for next
February—three months before the May primary, which is otherwise
crucial campaigning time.