Great news, today, for the folks pushing an Oregon-only iteration of the on-again, off-again Columbia River Crossing. An investment-grade analysis of the project released today by the Oregon Department of Transportation found the plan to toll any eventual bridge is a sound one—a point that’s been fiercely debated in past months.

In a summary of the lengthy analysis [pdf], just released by ODOT—and carried out by consulting firm CDM Smith— the agency says:

“Tolling will produce the necessary revenue to construct the replacement I-5 bridge. Using conservative and current traffic and revenue estimates, the Investment Grade Analysis on toll-generated revenue and financing finds that tolling the I-5 bridge produces the revenue necessary to construct the toll-funded project elements.”

The finding will likely be touted as fresh legitimacy for the$2.8 billion project, which suffered a huge set-back last year when the Washington legislature failed to approve the state’s $450 million portion of funding. That initially led many observers to assume the CRC was dead—there was an apparently-false storyline being floated by the bridge’s backers that federal funding opportunities were about to dry up—but that didn’t happen.

Instead, Oregon officials came up with a new plan, wherein Washington’s money isn’t needed—just a lasting permission by the state that Oregon gets to set bridge tolls. Federal money, it turned out, was still up for grabs.

Then, late last year, project detractors called into question some of the earlier numbers compiled CDM Smith. A new toll bridge, the argument by Portland economist Joe Cortright went, would push traffic on the Glen L. Jackson Memorial Bridge to the breaking point, reduce I-5 traffic, and wind up a financial bust. Not the case, ODOT says today.

Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler has said the blessing of an investment-grade analysis—along with the federal money and the agreement with Washington— is one of the huge remaining hurdles to moving forward with a bridge plan.

I'm a news reporter for the Mercury. I've spent a lot of the last decade in journalism — covering tragedy and chicanery in the hills of southwest Missouri, politics in Washington, D.C., and other matters...

8 replies on “ODOT Says CRC Tolls Would “Produce the Revenue Necessary””

  1. If they say it, it must be true. And if it turns out not to be, well, the politicians who pushed the thing through will be safely in lucrative private-sector jobs by the time we find out.

  2. If we don’t get marijuana legalized in Oregon before the CRC is built, Washingtonians will call it “The Bridge to Noweed.”

  3. If I were Treasurer I would still not risk billions of dollars just because of documents procured by CRC backers say it’s all peachy. They have continually “floated false storylines” to promote this counterproductive boondoggle. I am interested in seeing what assumptions CDM Smith has made. I guess it’s time to start reading, woo hoo!

  4. While I support another bridge, I cannot back one that doesn’t get the state of Washington to cough up some money too.
    Beyond tolls.

  6. Just skimming and so far found these interesting assumptions:

    In section 8.3.4 the report indicates that tolling will cause further congestion on I-205 which will eventually “encourage traffic growth on I-5”. Better add some more time on your trip to PDX.

    —

    Much of the modeling is based on the assumption that the economy will improve and that traffic volumes will increase. It’s been shown that there are other factors in traffic decline (since 2005) than just the economy and unemployment. Of course, assuming the economy will improve and a significant number of new jobs will be created is not a sure bet. http://dc.streetsblog.org/2013/08/29/more-…
    —-

    I find it shocking that experts like Ted Wheeler and the general public have been given only five (5) business days to review this report before the joint committee holds a oversight hearing on CRC (Tuesday Jan 14). The hearing will happen most likely without public input and could be the only one in the short session. Then a bill will likely drafted and rammed through the legislature (most likely with an emergency clause added to prevent any chance for referendum by the voting public). It’s unbelievably reckless and wrong.

  7. CDM and Wilbur Smith (now CDMSmith) also found many other projects penciled out. How are those turning out? (source and some wording: Impresa)

    – The San Diego South Bay Expressway, open in 2007, bankrupt in 2011, investment grade traffic projections and revenue forests by Wilbur Smith. Projected 60,000 vehicles/day; traffic was in fact 23,000/day, or 38% of forecast level. In 2009 toll revenue was $21m, about half of the $42m forecast.

    – San Joaquin Hills Toll Road in Orange County, open 1996, facing bankruptcy now, traffic projections by Wilbur Smith.

    – Richmond, VA’s Pocohontas Parkway, opened in 2002, turned over to lenders this year, traffic projections by Wilbur Smith. http://www.tollroadsnews.com/node/6591

    – Las Vegas monorail: open in 2004, bankrupt in 2010; traffic projections endorsed by Wilbur Smith.

    – Austin’s SH 130 tollway, opened in October 2012, downgraded and listed for probable default by December 2014 by bond rating service Moody’s; traffic projections were peer-reviewed by Wilbur Smith.

    – Reston, VA: “Wilbur Smith Assoc forecasting record slammed in report for Reston VA group” http://www.tollroadsnews.com/node/5726

    “forecasts of revenue by WSA as it then was (just recently merged to form CDMSmith) are on average 2.27 times – or 127% too high – as compared with subsequently realized toll revenues… WSA has made many very large errors in its forecasts that have been costly to investors, bondholders, governments, and toll road users who have relied on them to approve construction of major toll road projects.”

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