New statistics on Oregon’s unemployment level out yesterday suggest the state may be moving out of the worst period in its unemployment history. Statewide unemployment is now at 11.3 percent, according to the Oregon Employment Department, down almost a full percent from 12.2 percent in May, at the peak of unemployment.
“It looks like this could be the beginning of a positive trend,” says Christian Kaylor, a workforce analyst with the OED. “Certainly the worst seems to have passed, although I would want to see the trend continue for three to six months to make sure we don’t have some kind of double dip situation.”
Portland’s Metro area accounts for more than half of the statewide data, and the Portland figures are due out early next week, so this is a good indicator for Portland.
Kaylor says Oregon has tied its worst unemployment in history, in 1983. “It looked like we were going to pass that number, now it looks like we won’t, that we just matched it,” he says.
But the country as a whole is now on the 24 month anniversary of losing jobs every month. “That’s incredible,” says Kaylor. “It’s happened in previous recessions for six to 12 months, but for 24 months, that’s unheard of.”
Unemployment figures may be down, but continued net job loss in the Portland Metro area isn’t reversing along with unemployment, either. In the last 12 months, the Portland Metro area has lost 60,800 jobs, which accounts for 5.9 percent of all 975,800 jobs. The unemployment rate peaked in May, “but even since then, we have lost 14,000 jobs in the Portland Metro area,” says Kaylor.
So, while the unemployment rate is falling, those numbers suggest people may be leaving the workforce—deciding to stop looking for work, or physically leaving the state. “People may be deciding to go live in their mom’s basement, take anti-depressants, and play X-box,” says Kaylor. “They have essentially given up.”
But there are options! “You could go back to school, or you could join the military,” he says.
Analysts expect national net job loss to end in early 2010. “That point is coming,” says Kaylor. “But then the scariest question is, when are we going to start seeing these jobs coming back? People talk about 2011, 2012, and 2013, and it gets pretty scary when we’re looking that far out at when businesses are going to start hiring again with robustness.”
The official unemployment numbers are pretty much useless. They don’t count people who have given up. They don’t count people whose benefits have expired. They don’t count people who have been downgraded from full time to part time. The real unemployment in my opinion is much worse than the recession of the early eighties.
Despite that, I think this is not as bad as what we went through in the eighties because during that one the high unemployment was coupled with rampant inflation. The prices of everything were going up daily and the prime interest rate hit 20%!!
Good thing we got all that stimulus money to build streetcars.
“Certainly the worst seems to have passed, although I would want to see the trend continue for three to six months to make sure we don’t have some kind of double dip situation.”
Select option A or B but not A and B.
“You could go back to school, or you could join the military,” In other words we don’t have a clue. This is what passes for job counseling at the Oregon Employment Department. As much or more than any agent in this current downturn the OED is compounding the misery with useless advice, mindless busywork, flawed statistics and self serving experts hiding in their cubicles grateful they are not looking for work. Governor Kulongoski could do us all a favor, pull the plug and turn these parasites onto the streets.
Actually, what will happen as the economy improves for business is this (think about it): during the downturn businesses have learned to do more with less, by paying fewer employees than before to work some overtime, by analyzing their workflow and streamlining it, by buying from suppliers who themselves are making similar economies.
In other words, even when the economy improves, a lot of those jobs aren’t coming back.
It’s really time for the American people to get used to some socialism rather than get used to huge numbers of impoverished unemployed, many of them resorting out of necessity to criminal activities.
You’re right Amanda. I’ve seen lots of cases where employers (usually larger companies) have laid off highly compensated mid level management or sales people and then put lower paid folks in those positions as “trainees”. The trainees of course don’t get the wages of those laid off.
…”rather than get used to huge numbers of impoverished unemployed, many of them resorting out of necessity to criminal activities.”
That is the necessary byproduct imposed by economic reality in such a system.
Go read about the U.S.S.R. Or Cuba. Or Venezuela. etc .
The Fred Meyers on Interstate gets more Police Bureau calls for service than any other location in the city. In this country if you are white it’s called “foraging” and if you are black it’s looting.
A better model for America’s dystopian future is the Post Apocalypse economy in Argentina during the late nineties and early 21st century.
““Tearing off the metal cladding, they invaded the bank lobbies and in full sight of the police, without a mask or black hoody to be seen, proceeded to destroy the cash machines. Women with perms, golden bracelets and high heels kicked at the windows, lipstick grins spreading as they watched the glass shatter. Every armoured security van the mob of 300 people came across was surrounded. Men in business suits proceeded to unscrew the wheel-nuts, while others prised open the bonnets, tearing out wires from the engines. Soccer mums jumped up and down on top of vans, smashing anything that could be broken, wing-mirrors, lights, number plates…”
http://www.schnews.org.uk/archive/news350.…
I know it’s only rock ‘n roll but I like it, like it, yes, I do …
The OED’s Kaylor states – “You could go back to school, or you could join the military,”
How on earth do any of these suggestions apply to a 50 year old that has been laid-off?
The OED needs to re-anallze their employees holding the title of “Workforce Analyst”