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Well, they certainly couldn’t run things any worse.
That seems like a really long way off to me. Moore’s law predicts that computing power will double every two years. Three years ago, a computer beat the best Jeopardy contestant ever. Does a computer really need ~262,144 times more power to be smarter than a person?
Yeah, that sounds about right. Probably less to be smarter than you, though.
Moore’s law doesn’t say anything about computing power, dude. And it ain’t a real law in the mathematical sense. He just observed that transistor density seems to double every eighteen months or so. That has for the most part held true up until the last couple years, but lately the largest advances are different, more efficient architectures, not chip density. Regardless, outsmarting a human is easy. Performing more swiftly, learning more precisely is easy. At specific tasks, that is. Replicating a human’s mental agility and flexibility is extremely difficult. Our ability to adapt and change to new stimulus and changes to a situation is absolutely unparalleled. And in that, I think Mr. Kurzweil is being wildly optimistic.