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The Portland Timbers hit the road for a matchup with Western Conference leaders FC Dallas in Frisco on Saturday, where temperatures will hover around 100 degrees for the 6:00 PM kick. The Timbers haven’t won away from home in MLS play since May, being outscored in their last three road games in all competitions 10-0.

But Portland have been given a boost by the arrival of the club’s record signing, Argentine forward Lucas Melano, who may be available to make his Timbers debut against Dallas this weekend. In any case, this game carries major playoff implications in the West, where the top six teams are separated in the standings by a mere three points.

The History

The Timbers got their first win of the 2015 season against this FC Dallas side on April 4th at Providence Park, behind goals from Nat Borchers, Maxi Urruti, and Diego Chara. That game, which ended with a now-infamous post-game spat between coaches Caleb Porter and Oscar Pareja, continued a trend of Portland dominance over the Texas side.

The Timbers beat FC Dallas 2-0 in their last trip to Frisco, while Darlington Nagbe’s goalscoring record against the Hoops is scary—the Timbers’ midfielder has scored six goals in 12 games against the club, giving him the second-best strike-rate against Dallas among active MLS players.

Whether any of that animosity from the April meeting will carry over remains to be seen. Last season, Dallas picked up two red cards in a game in Portland—and saw a coach sent off for trying to punch a Timbers fan—while Diego Valeri tore his ACL in the return meeting on the final day of last season.

The Tactics

The Timbers and Caleb Porter have some thinking to do after a severly disappointing performance and 1-1 home draw with the Vancouver Whitecaps last weekend. The back-line will remain intact, but with Will Johnson’s post-game red card ruling him out, Jack Jewsbury will slide back into the starting central midfield alongside Diego Chara.

Portland has had very limited success without Johnson this season. It was his return that coincided with Portland’s five-game home winning streak throughout June that turned this 2015 season on its head. Now, though, the Timbers face perhaps their most important game without their skipper—of course, only due to his own rash indiscipline.

With Fanendo Adi playing well enough to keep his place, and Melano unfit to start even if he is avaliable, there appears to be just one spot up for grabs in the starting eleven. Dairon Asprilla, Rodney Wallace, or Gaston Fernandez could all get it.

Dallas has had their own mini-revival as of late, starting with the central midfield pairing of Kellyn Acosta and Victor Ulloa. The danger-men are Fabian Castillo and Mauro Diaz, while one of the Timbers’ most reviled opponents, Blas Perez, is out for this match—his national team Panama, unhappily enough, will be playing the USA in the Gold Cup third-place match in Chester, PA earlier in the day.

The Lineup

12 – Kwarasey
2 – Powell
24 – Ridgewell (C)
7 – Borchers
19 – Villafaña
13 – Jewsbury
21 – Chara
22 – Wallace
6 – Nagbe
8 – Valeri
9 – Adi

The Pick

Combine all the factors—the heat, Dallas’ terrific form, the Timbers’ garbage road form, Johnson’s suspension—and this sets up pretty well for the home team. 2-1 FC Dallas.

Abe Asher covers city news, politics, and soccer for the Portland Mercury. His reporting has appeared in The Nation, VICE News, Sahan Journal, and other outlets.