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  • Illustration: Sarah Hayes

THE FIGURE looked like validation.

A week into Oregon’s historic, and largely problem-free, experiment in recreational pot sales, there were whispers—then shouts—that dispensaries had moved an eye-popping $11 million in product.

It was a number with the potential to satisfy lingering doubts about legal pot. After all, $11 million in weekly sales would shatter officials’ best guesses at how much Oregon’s new industry will bring in for schools, drug treatment, and police.

More than any other state that’s ended prohibition, the figure that rocketed around social media and over the Associated Press wire seemed to suggest Oregon was more than ready for on-the-level weed.

“If the first week of sales are any indication, the marijuana industry in Oregon will quickly outpace the tax revenue generated by beer and wine,” wrote Anthony Johnson, a leading campaigner for legal weed, in a post on his website, marijuanapolitics.com. “Prohibitionists used to claim that revenue from legalizing cannabis wouldn’t materialize, but it looks like they will have to move onto another false claim.”

Here’s the problem: The $11 million itself may be a false claim. Oregon almost certainly didn’t sell that much recreational pot the first week of October. We’ll probably never know what it sold.

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I'm a news reporter for the Mercury. I've spent a lot of the last decade in journalism — covering tragedy and chicanery in the hills of southwest Missouri, politics in Washington, D.C., and other matters...