Bob Stacey: Probably not President.
Bob Stacey: Probably not President.
  • Bob Stacey: Probably not President.

Okay, political nerds, there’s one local race left undecided so it’s time to whip out the calculators.

The Metro President helps set the region’s land use policy and has a large hand in figuring out how the region can grow in a smart way. Bob Stacey and Tom Hughes are locked neck and neck in the tri-county race, with Hughes currently leading by only 281 votes.

There’s roughly 5970 ballots left to count in Multnomah County (which is going 56.7 percent for Bob Stacey), 10,324 to count in Washington County (which is going 60.25 percent for Tom Hughes) and 3,684 to count in Clackamas County (which is going 53.37 percent for Tom Hughes). By my math, that puts Tom Hughes ahead by 1,877 votes at the end of the grueling vote count.

You know what’s interesting? The number of write-in votes in this election is higher than the number of deciding votes. The three counties wrote in 2,890 votes. Also of note: there’s a write-in Rex Burkholder Facebook group… only 40 members, but one of the creators is Burkholder’s wife.

Of course, these numbers could change as new results come in, it’s all just speculation at this point. Excuse me while I go chew off my fingernails.

Sarah Shay Mirk reported on transportation, sex and gender issues, and politics at the Mercury from 2008-2013. They have gone on to make many things, including countless comics and several books.

4 replies on “The Metro President Math Isn’t Looking Good for Bob Stacey.”

  1. If the current margins hold, your math is sound. The catch with that assumption is the big Democratic GOTV operation. It looked like the late ballots in Multnomah county broke in Kitzhaber’s favor by more than the 70-30 margin that he was winning by early in the night.

    If the late ballots in Washington and Clackamas counties are slightly more liberal than the early ballots, Stacey has an outside shot. By my math, a 3% shift in all 3 counties would give Stacey a slim 109 vote margin. A 5% shift would put Stacey ahead by 1,300.

    Of course, that’s assuming the late voters even bothered to fill out downballot races. If Stacey manages to pull ahead, he’ll have Kitzhaber’s coattails to thank.

  2. I told rex long ago that vocally supporting the CRC was going to result in him losing, why he went against his principles to support a megabridge I’ll never understand, but it certainly lost him my vote in the primary.

  4. Bruce, good thing he’s spent 35 protecting farm and forestland instead of selling cars, then.

    Sad that Rex’s wife lost perspective in such a detrimental way.

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