Would anybody like to hire me to predict whether your restaurant will survive or not? I’m really good. I’ve got a creepy sixth sense recently where I can tell almost instantly how long a new establishment will stay in business.

I’m seven-for-seven with restaurants I predicted wouldn’t survive the year and it’s only June. There was a new breakfast place that I went to a couple days after it opened and I knew just from the banner (actually, it was really just the font on the banner) it wouldn’t make it six weeks. It closed in four-and-a-half. I’m really good.

I don’t want restaurants to close, but I think people should know that their idea is a bad one. Here’s my proposal: You open a restaurant, you pay me to get eat there once. Then, I tell you if you should stick it out or just give up now and burn it down for the insurance money. If it’s on the fence, I can tell you that and you can start using it as drug front or something to push it over the top. Think of it like Kitchen Nightmares except I won’t help you or fix anything or get you any free publicity.

I am willing to do this for cheap ($100 + the food [preferably including french fries]) because of how much I hate to see restaurants close.

Alex is a moderately attractive comedian and Internet celebrity. He writes about philosophy, robots, travel, and himself.

14 replies on “Restaurant Death Watch”

  1. Yeah, every time the weatherman predicts snow, I walk around work saying “forget it, we’re not getting snow.” I have a 95% success rate.

  8. Yeah, MLK at Fremont doesn’t seem to be the hot corner for fine dining all the restauranteurs seem to think it is. Stuff might have a better shot there if/when they develop the empty lot across the street.

    Attempted threadjackin’: it’s crazy how fast N Williams is coming up since New Seasons broke ground. Those blocks between Williams and MLK north of Russell and south of Alberta are going to be gentrified right quick. It probably won’t be 5-7 years before another pricey restaurant may actually be viable at MLK/Fremont.

  9. MLK and Fremont is cursed, as is the spot next to Noble Rot on E Burnside. And also the one connected to the Wonder Ballroom where Trigger actually seems to be doing well…for now.

    I feel like running a restaurant that’s on a chef burial ground can’t quite be blamed on the restaurateurs. But here’s the big question: how long do we give that SoWa joint Beau Breedlove opened? I say gone by October.

  10. One problem is that there seems to be about one restaurant for every two people in Portland, a city where half the people don’t earn enough money to really eat in restaurants. So that’s one earning household per restaurant. You better be a damn good restaurant.

  11. The ultimate tell: the “Grand Opening” sign up weeks (sometimes months) after opening. At some point, the sign drives people away. At that point, restaurants need to have some faith in themselves.

    I agree it’s sort of mean-spirited to name names. Perhaps, Falcone, you could try some of these places, and if they’re actually good, write them up. Talking with business owners, you can’t underestimate how much even a blog post (forget a published article) can boost some of these places.

  12. Ha! Came here to mention that noodle / pasta / whatever place on MLK and Fremont. It’s just a shitty spot: little / no direct parking, low visibility despite being right on the corner of a major intersection, and plenty of cracktivity left across the street at the Mobil.

  13. I don’t know-that spot on Sandy where Killer Burger resides hosted at least 4 failed restaurants before they showed up and made a success of the place. That other spot on Sandy where Church is now also seemed doomed. Is it a right place/right time thing or maybe there is a trick to tailoring food to location?

  14. Blabby you have a point but I think you are underestimating the number of 20-30 somethings with disposable income. You know, this publications main demographic

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