We’re at the crunch point now, everyone. Will we or won’t we put gay marriage on the Oregon ballot in 2012?
The fate of thousands of Oregonian’s marital status is in the hands of Basic Rights Oregon (BRO), the LGBT rights group that has been canvassing the state since 2009 “starting conversations” about gay marriage. This month, the group is holding town halls statewide (Portland’s is Sunday at the Q Center) to listen to public opinion on gay marriage. BRO is slated to announce as soon as next week whether they’ll pursue gay marriage in 2012.
The sticking point is this: In order to get gay marriage in Oregon, we have to pass a constitutional amendment, which means getting a majority of voters across the entire state (hello Eastern Oregon!) on board with the idea. Voters are historical skeptical about passing any sort of constitutional amendment and gay marriage is certain to bring an expensive political battle (I believe the Oregon Family Council’s words were, “If we have to fight, we’re going to fight hard.” Gulp.). So BRO wants to have a buffer of support before it heads into campaign season, otherwise we risk winding up with Oregon’s very own Prop 8.
The problem is, the most recent polling shows a slim majority of Oregonians oppose gay marriage—roughly 48 percent of Oregonians think gay marriage should be legal. Whether 50 percent of people who will actually turn out to the polls next November will support gay marriage is the issue.
Ugh. It seems to me that it’s very possible BRO will decide this week not to bring marriage to the ballot—even after years of canvassing, ads, and political legwork. And that’s a shame. As a total political optimist, I think we can win this in 2012. I think this will be an issue that will pull young people and progressive Oregonians to the polls (and to the phone banks, volunteer teams, and fundraising dinners), even when voting for Obama again isn’t looking very exciting. With the mainstream gushing over New York’s gay marriage passage, more centrist Oregonians will get comfortable with the culture change before next November.
If BRO doesn’t go for the gold, they risk alienating the fiery LGBT supporters who are already pissed off at having to wait till 2012. I think this seems like the time for Oregonians to fight for our rites.
While I’m not optimistic about this passing, it will galvanize younger voters and get them to vote, which is a good thing. While it will also galvanize lots of conservatives, they’re already worked up and ready to go to the polls over their hatred of Obama. Ultimately, this will probably inspire more liberal voters who were not already inspired than conservatives.
This probably fail, but money and time spent on this will be money and time spent on firing up left-leaning voters and making sure Oregon goes blue in the presidential election, so it’s a good idea. Also, I don’t know whether that lest sentence is worthy of groans or high-fives.
“The problem is, the most recent polling shows a slim majority of Oregonians oppose gay marriage…”
So what?
Franky, i do NOT see how this is any sort of problem at all! And why are we even soliciting people’s opinions on this issue (noone ever polled ME about what i thought – so who are they even talking to?)?!
Ask a wide margin of Oregonians how they felt about Blacks living in the state – say around the 1930’s – and what do you think the outcome would have been? Ask Oregonians whether THEY thought it would be just fine to pass Civil Rights laws that mandated the states’ Black residents be treated the EXACT SAME WAY as it’s White residents, and see what answer you’d have gotten.
This is soo goddamned silly. Kitzhaber should just PASS this law and make marriage b/t gays LEGAL in OR! And there’s NO reason why it can’t be effective come Jan. 2012. And if any hateful CHRISTIANS have anything to say about it – well they can all just go n’ fuck themselves, already!
It’s going to happen, sooner or later, anyways. I don’t understand why we’re dragging this out for years until “majority public approval” is achieved.
“noone ever polled ME about what i thought – so who are they even talking to?”
It’s called representative sampling and it’s much more efficient than interviewing every single fucking person with an opinion about something.
“Kitzhaber should just PASS this law and make marriage b/t gays LEGAL in OR! And there’s NO reason why it can’t be effective come Jan. 2012. “
Um… there’s an amendment in the state’s constitution prohibiting it. The governor can’t just pass a law overturning it. The governor can’t just pass a law, period.
Not sure if serious….
I think we also need to consider the national political environment, and the possibility that conservatives will be at least as motivated as young metro liberals.
If marriage equality goes to the ballot in 2012 and doesn’t pass, it will set back the total movement greatly, and cost us resources, not to mention emotionally. I desperately want to be able to legally marry my longterm partner, but thinking about the devastating effect of a lost movement for my family, and the thousands of other gay families in the state, gives me considerable pause.
I’m curious about this: “It’s called representative sampling and it’s much more efficient than interviewing every single fucking person with an opinion about something” (terminizer).
I see about two dozen polls in the news every day, and yet I nor hardly anyone I’ve ever spoken with about this has ever been polled for anything except marketing studies. So how representative can these samples be? I guess Gallup is still just calling up folks who have land lines and time to sit around answering questions about the gays.
This is going to be a financially and emotionally expensive battle, no matter when it happens. Our side gets to choose when to put it on the ballot – shouldn’t we make sure the time is absolutely right and continue to allow time to engage folks in dialogue? Waiting a little longer will give us more time to change the minds of middle-of-the-road people. As soon as this becomes a political campaign, I worry that the the opposition will start pandering with ugly rhetoric and the people we need to reach will have a harder time hearing and listening to us.
I would love to be able to try for it in 2012, even if it was not likely to succeed, except for one thing:NOM.
Brian Brown, Maggie Gallagher and the rest of the “National Organization for Marriage” has been bragging how “in 31 states that have voted, all 31 have supported traditional marriage.”
I don’t want to add any legitimacy to their tyranny-of-the-masses rhetoric.
It really pains me to have to say it, but at this time, I think it would be wiser to continue building support and polling numbers — and then REALLY smash NOM’s hurtful lies to pieces in a non-presidential year.
People are making this way more complicated than it really is. This isn’t figuring out the economy. This is one of those easy things. Just LEGALIZE it and be done with it – that’s all.
The people (christians) who are going to get mad about it can get mad, so what? Lot’s of racist White people got mad when inter-racial marriage was made legal decades ago. And there wasn’t a damned thing they could’ve done about THAT, either!
Please remember to also fix the Oregon Divorce Law. It says divorce is between one man and one woman the last time I read it.
This article seems to fall victim to the same assumptions about “Eastern Or v. Western Or” that sunk the No on 36 campaign a while back. The reality is that it was assumed by many gay marriage proponents that african-American voters would safely and predictably vote the standard liberal party line. That turned out to not be the case. Many religious african-Americans voted in favor of 36.
I’m all in favor of repealing Measure 36 and allowing gay marriage. But if that’s really gonna happen you’ll need to get past blaming it on eastern Oregon.