Fans of the Portland Timbers are incredibly, improbably lucky. It’s akin to being born a Cubs fan, or a Red Sox fan. There aren’t many cathedrals in American sports. There are just a few. And Providence Park, born in 1901, is one of them.
What is about to happen tonight, then, is a landmark. After the completion of a major renovation and expansion project that has lifted to park’s seating capacity to just over 25,000 people, the new Providence Park will host a homecoming for the ages: the Timbers’ first home game more than six months against MLS’s best team (7:30 p.m., TV on ESPN2).
The Opponent
The Timbers couldn’t have drawn a tougher opponent for their homecoming than Bob Bradley’s LAFC, who have been, by far and away, the best team in MLS this year.
The numbers pretty well tell the story. LAFC lead the Supporters’ Shield race by six points with not even half of the season gone. They’ve lost just one time in 15 games, are averaging well more than two goals per game, and have a captain in Carlos Vela who is on pace to shatter the MLS single-season scoring record.
LAFC +25 goal differential is 16 goals better than the next best team in the Eastern Conference and 18 goals better than the next team in the Western Conference. To put that in perspective, last year’s New York Red Bulls team, which amassed an MLS record 71 points, finished the season at +29.
As they prepare to face the Timbers tonight, LAFC are swaggering. They are richer, more talented, and better coached than every team they’ve played this season.
This game, then, provides a welcome test: a matchup with their conference’s reigning champion, on the road, in a national TV game that has been circled on everyone’s calendar for months. If we know anything about Bradley, LAFC will be more than up for it.
The Tactics
Similarly to last season, LAFC are the best team in the league at creating offense via possession. Their 4-3-3, which features a central midfield anchored by Canadian Mark-Anthony Kaye is setup to create overloads all over the field and ply spaces and channels open for the likes of Vela and Diego Rossi to exploit.
This is what LAFC did ruthlessly when they beat the Timbers 4-1 in the reverse meeting at Banc of California in March. The Timbers have certainly progressed defensively since then, and will likely sit a number of players in, but LAFC will likely get their chances.
Where can LAFC be hurt? In transition. Their center backs Walker Zimmerman and Eddie Segura aren’t blessed with all that much foot speed, and with Steven Beitashour hurt, second year player Tristan Blackmon — who has just two MLS starts to his name — will be the right back.
The Timbers of course were absolutely electric in transition against the Philadelphia Union last weekend, and have again firmly established themselves as a primarily counter-attacking team. It’s a system that has suited new DP Brian Fernandez, who has three goals in just 115 MLS minutes, just fine.
But more than Fernandez, the Timbers’ central midfield will determine if they are successful tonight. If Diego Chara is the best player on the field, it’ll mean that he’s both been able to limit Kaye’s influence and jumpstart the Timbers’ counter attack.
Either way, this game is going to be intense. There was plenty of bad blood between these teams last year, the Timbers are going to be extraordinarily amped to be back in front of their home crowd, and the atmosphere is going to be nothing short of crazed.
Robert Sibiga will be the referee. Few will envy him.
The Lineup
12 – Clark
4 – Villafaña
33 – Mabiala
25 – Tuiloma
16 – Valentin
21 – Chara
14 – Flores
10 – Blanco
7 – Fernandez
8 – Valeri (C)
17 – Ebobisse
— The two main injury concerns for the Timbers are Cristhian Paredes, who missed the Philadelphia game, and Jeremy Ebobisse, who exited it in the first half. Gio Savarese said this week that both players are fit, as is Fernandez, who cramped up towards the end of the Union game.
— If Savarese wants to add an extra number in central midfield to try to disrupt LAFC’s passing game, expect Ebobisse to be sacrificed and Fernandez to start up top. If not, then then he’ll be selecting between Paredes and Andres Flores to start alongside Chara.
— Jorge Villafaña got the nod over Jorge Moreira for the fullback spot opposite Zarek Valentin in Chester last weekend and played well. Villafaña was pretty well exposed in the game between these teams in LA; he’ll be looking for a measure of personal redemption if he gets the call tonight.
The Memory
Two come to mind.
The first is LAFC’s trip to Providence Park last year, which was one of the best games played in the venue all season and ended with Bradley screaming at Savarese. The second, perhaps more poignantly, is of the first ever MLS game played at the venue eight years ago against Chicago. Except a similar vibe tonight.
The Pick
This game should be worth every penny. LAFC aren’t going to sit in — they’re going to put the Timbers’ defense under sustained pressure, and, in the process, open themselves up on the counter. It will finish 2-2.
