The freshest public poll yet in the Portland mayor’s race holds some lousy news for Eileen Brady’s mayoral campaign a day before voting stops.
Remember that Oregonian/KGW poll last week that everyone called an “outlier” because it put Brady in third place behind Charlie Hales and Jefferson Smith? A survey from OPB released today pretty much affirms that result—which has to be a dispiriting trend for a campaign that’s raised, and then spent, more than a million bucks.
Since the last OPB poll done at the end of April, Brady’s number has fallen seven points. Meanwhile, Hales saw a surge that same size, while Smith also saw a four-point bump. Hales and Smith are starting to cement their status as the two candidates most likely to make the November runoff—although Brady isn’t so far behind, under the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error, that she can’t technically manage to squeak into the runoff.
Where Brady finishes (assuming she won’t place first, but also remembering what”they” say about assumptions…) will be as big a story as who finishes first in the mayoral race. Even placing second will be seen by some observers as a loss, given Brady’s overwhelming cash advantage when it comes to getting her message out. That’ll mean a few things: She didn’t have a message, or one that voters liked. Or that her campaign didn’t do a good job selling the message she had. Or, that, you know, Portlanders still don’t much like over-the-top big-money candidates.
In the other big contested city race, the poll notes that incumbent Commissioner Amanda Fritz’s lead over State Representative Mary Nolan is all but unchanged since the last one, growing by a single, irrelevant percentage point.
Who do you think will win and how? Vote in our super unscientific accurate, statistically spot-on, and completely scientific poll! Defend your choices in the comments. UPDATE 12:48 PM: My boss threatened to fire me if I didn’t correct the characterization of our poll to the “truth.” Sigh.
WHY AREN’T THEY RELEASING THE POLING NUMBERS IN THE NOVICK RACES? WHAT ARE THEY COVERING UP?!!??
“16. IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? STEVE NOVICK OR SOMEONE ELSE?”
STEVE NOVICK: 112%
SOMEONE ELSE: -12%
Even the SUSA poll was terrible for Brady; it had her down 6 points in three weeks, and her not-yet-voted number was 10 pts below her already-voted number. But yeah, two polls in a row at 16 is…bad.
Francesconi. Portland does not like big money candidates. Brady came off as a snooty west hills denizen who probably overstated her business experience. Hales has credentials and Jefferson has youthful spirit and a devotion to working slob east Portland. I was very torn between Hales and Smith so I’ll be glad if the runoff is between them.
You’d never know Brady had the most money to spend. I swear, I see nothing outside of the occasional “Elleen” yard sign promoting her campaign. Whatever they’re doing, it must not be directed at middle class 30-something males.
Merc readers might be interested in the differences builders and developers might pay under Brady, Hales and Smith administrations:
http://www.blueoregon.com/2012/05/differen…
@R – I don’t think that concerns most Merc readers. How about a chart that talks about rent levels for low-income housing?
@6: Is there a graph somewhere that shows the candidates’ positions on free beer and sexual promiscuity?
Why are there no options for vegans in these polls?
@Reymont, glad to hear a further explanation.
Low income housing is eligible for reduced or waived Portland System Development Charges. The most affordable housing is in vintage structures, new construction is simply too expensive. It has to rent for more than $2 per sqft per month, plus property taxes of about $.40 per sqft a month, excluding land cost.